According to our model, the International Team currently has a 13.2% chance of winning the Presidents Cup. The following table breaks down their potential paths to victory based on how many points they earn in today’s 5-match session:

The first row tells us that the Internationals have a 0.7% chance of sweeping this afternoon’s Foursomes; if they manage to do this (taking a 7-3 lead), they’ll have a 57% chance of winning the cup. I was a bit surprised how unlikely a sweep actually is; the odds of an American sweep are better at 3.2%, but still pretty low. This puts into perspective just how wild last year’s back-to-back sweeps in the first two sessions were.

The average score in the simulations for Session 2 is 2.8-2.2 in favour of the Americans, so even a split session actually improves the Internationals chances slightly. If the INTs fail to secure at least 1.5 points today, we are looking at a >95% American win probability heading into the weekend.