These probabilities come from simulations, which work as follows: first, we simulate each player's overall skill and their skill profile (driving distance, driving accuracy, etc.) at the time of the Ryder Cup using their current skill profile and age as inputs. Second, we decide who makes each team based on players' current and simulated skills, the number of DG Points they've accumulated in recent events, and the number of previous Ryder Cups they've participated in. Third, we adjust the skill levels of the selected players to account for their course fit and history at Bethpage Black. Finally, we simulate each match of the Ryder Cup with these teams to determine a winner. Repeat this many times, and each team's win probability is equal to the fraction of simulations that resulted in a win. 1. The players considered in each simulation are shown in the "Player Pools" below.
2. LIV players are not treated any differently than non-LIV players. In practice, they are probably less likely to make the team because it is more difficult for them to earn an automatic qualifying spot.
3. When it becomes known that a player is ineligible (e.g. does not have DP World Tour membership, which is a requirement to make the European side), we will remove them the potential player pool.
4. When a player is a mathematical lock to make the team on points, we will lock their position on the team in the simulations.
5. There is no home-country advantage explicity modelled.