Pressure Tool
SELECT PLAYER:
Pressure vs Performance
HELP ME UNDERSTAND
The graph below plots the relationship between 4th round starting position and performance.
"Performance" here is measured in strokes better/worse than our model's expectation at the time the round was played.
Green dots represent rounds where Scottie Scheffler performed above expectation, while red dots reflect below-expectation performances.
Lastly, the blue line fits the data to highlight any trends in the position-performance relationship.
As we move left right across the plot, "pressure" rises...
As we move left right across the plot, "pressure" rises...
-6
-4
-2
0
+2
+4
+6
STROKES-GAINED VS EXPECTATION
TRENDLINE ONLY
PGATOUR AVG
Not enough data for trendline.
POSITION ENTERING 4TH RND
60TH
50TH
40TH
30TH
20TH
10TH
5TH
1ST
4TH Round Performances
DATE RANGE
STARTING POSITION RANGE
POSITION
STROKES-GAINED
EXPECTED WINS
EVENT
SCORESHOT
START
Δ
END
TRUE
VS "EXPECTED" VS EXPECT
BEFORE ROUND BEFORE
GIVEN HOW HE PLAYED AFTER
WIN
FILTERED AVERAGESAVERAGES (133 ROUNDS)
69.0
-
-
+1.9
14.49
13.90
17
2022The Masters
71
1
1
+2.4
0.76
0.86
2023WM Phoenix Open
65
1
1
+5.6
0.50
0.94
2024RBC Heritage
68
1
1
+3.1
0.58
0.65
2023Hero World Challenge #2
68
1
1
+1.9
0.82
0.86
2023THE PLAYERS Championship
69
1
1
+3.8
0.77
0.97
2024Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
66
T1
1
+8.0
0.42
0.99
2024Masters Tournament
68
1
1
+5.3
0.59
0.93
2024TOUR Championship
67
1
1
+2.3
0.93
0.97
2024the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
74
1
1
+2.0
0.82
0.79
2024Texas Children's Houston Open
68
T1
1
T2
+0.9
0.37
0.01
2020The American Express
70
T1
2
3
+0.6
0.52
0.41
2019Savannah Golf Championship
70
T1
1
2
+0.3
0.27
0.16
2024AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
70
T1
5
T6
-0.2
0.35
0.00
2022Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open
69
1
1
T2
+2.2
0.31
0.22
2022TOUR Championship
73
1
1
T2
-2.8
0.86
0.17
2023BMW Championship
66
T1
1
T2
+3.8
0.45
0.59
2022Charles Schwab Challenge
72
1
1
T1
+0.8
0.58
0.28
2024Charles Schwab Challenge
71
2
T2
+1.6
0.37
0.08
2023Sentry Tournament of Champions
70
T2
5
T7
-0.5
0.06
0.00
2024Hero World Challenge
63
2
1
1
+8.6
0.42
0.98
2020THE NORTHERN TRUST
71
T2
2
T4
-0.8
0.06
0.00
2024Travelers Championship
65
T2
1
T1
+2.9
0.32
0.12
2020PGA Championship
68
T2
2
T4
+2.0
0.15
0.01
2023Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
73
T2
2
T4
-0.4
0.32
0.00
2023Hero World Challenge
68
2
2
+3.1
0.22
0.19
2022WM Phoenix Open
67
T3
2
T1
+3.7
0.11
0.10
2019Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by United Leasing & Finance
72
T3
4
T7
-1.1
0.07
0.00
2019Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship
67
T3
2
1
+3.3
0.13
0.38
2021Waste Management Phoenix Open
70
T3
4
T7
-0.5
0.06
0.00
2022U.S. Open
67
T4
2
T2
+5.6
0.09
0.31
2022BMW Championship
70
T4
1
T3
+1.8
0.12
0.00
2023RBC Heritage
70
T4
7
T11
+0.9
0.09
0.00
2021The Open Championship
71
T4
4
T8
-0.8
0.05
0.00
2023AT&T Byron Nelson
65
T4
1
T5
+1.9
0.18
0.00
2021the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide
70
T4
1
3
+3.8
0.06
0.05
2023U.S. Open
70
4
1
3
+2.3
0.12
0.00
2022Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
72
4
3
1
+4.2
0.12
0.16
2024FedEx St. Jude Championship
66
T4
4
+3.5
0.04
0.00
2022The Open Championship
74
T5
16
T21
-3.9
0.02
0.00
2020A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier
69
T5
2
T7
+0.4
0.07
0.00
2021abrdn Scottish Open
69
T5
7
T12
-0.3
0.04
0.00
2023PGA Championship
65
T5
3
T2
+6.3
0.07
0.25
2021World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
74
T5
9
14
-2.2
0.03
0.00
2024WM Phoenix Open
66
T5
2
T3
+3.6
0.22
0.14
2020Bermuda Championship
66
5
2
T3
+2.1
0.06
0.01
2023Genesis Scottish Open
70
T5
2
T3
+2.1
0.10
0.00
2023TOUR Championship
70
T5
1
T6
+0.1
0.01
0.00
2022The Genesis Invitational
69
T6
1
T7
+2.6
0.00
0.00
2024THE PLAYERS Championship
64
T6
5
1
+7.8
0.04
0.39
2024Olympic Men's Golf Competition
62
T6
5
1
+8.3
0.04
0.46
2024The Sentry
66
T6
1
T5
+1.5
0.11
0.00
2019Wichita Open Supporting Wichita's Youth
67
T6
1
T7
-0.7
0.09
0.00
2021U.S. Open #2
72
T6
1
T7
+1.9
0.04
0.00
2023Travelers Championship
65
T7
3
T4
+3.1
0.02
0.00
2021World Golf Championships-Workday Championship at The Concession
68
T7
2
5
+5.1
0.02
0.02
2022World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba
66
T7
3
4
+3.6
0.00
0.00
2021ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP @ SHERWOOD
72
T7
10
T17
-1.5
0.02
0.00
2020The RSM Classic
68
T8
3
T5
+2.5
0.01
0.00
2025The Genesis Invitational
66
T8
5
T3
+5.1
0.04
0.02
2019The Bahamas Great Abaco Classic at The Abaco Club
72
T8
1
7
+1.6
0.00
0.00
2019Dormie Network Classic at Briggs Ranch
69
T8
1
T7
+0.7
0.00
0.00
2022Hero World Challenge
66
8
6
2
+5.4
0.01
0.03
2020TOUR Championship
65
8
3
5
+5.4
0.00
0.00
2024The Open Championship
72
8
1
T7
+1.6
0.16
0.00
2022AT&T Byron Nelson
69
T9
6
T15
-0.5
0.03
0.00
2023The American Express
67
T9
2
T11
+1.8
0.01
0.00
2020Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
75
T9
6
T15
+0.6
0.00
0.00
2019Evans Scholars Invitational
63
T9
8
T1
+4.6
0.01
0.03
2025AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
67
T10
1
T9
+3.4
0.01
0.00
2023Charles Schwab Challenge
67
T10
7
T3
+4.9
0.02
0.00
2025WM Phoenix Open
72
T10
15
T25
-1.7
0.02
0.00
2020Sanderson Farms Championship
70
T10
6
T16
+0.2
0.01
0.00
2022Travelers Championship
70
T11
2
T13
-0.0
0.01
0.00
2020the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide
77
T12
10
T22
-0.3
0.00
0.00
2019Country Club de Bogota Championship
67
T12
7
T5
+2.9
0.00
0.00
2021Valspar Championship
74
T12
17
T29
-2.4
0.00
0.00
2025Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
70
T13
2
T11
+2.5
0.00
0.00
2023Masters Tournament
70
T15
5
T10
+4.0
0.00
0.00
2023The Genesis Invitational
68
T15
3
T12
+3.2
0.00
0.00
2019Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail Championship
67
T15
10
5
+3.5
0.01
0.00
2025THE PLAYERS Championship
73
T16
4
T20
+0.6
0.01
0.00
2021Sentry Tournament of Champions
69
T16
3
T13
+2.4
0.00
0.00
2019Nashville Golf Open Benefitting the Snedeker Foundation
64
T16
14
T1
+6.7
0.00
0.18
2019Valero Texas Open
70
T16
4
T20
+0.9
0.00
0.00
2021TOUR Championship
71
T17
5
T22
-0.8
0.00
0.00
2020World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
68
T17
2
T15
+1.8
0.00
0.00
2020Mayakoba Golf Classic
68
T18
T18
+1.7
0.00
0.00
2022Farmers Insurance Open
71
T19
1
T20
+1.6
0.00
0.00
2021The Masters
71
T20
1
T19
+1.9
0.00
0.00
2024The Genesis Invitational
68
T20
10
T10
+3.4
0.00
0.00
2021The Masters #2
71
T21
3
T18
+2.7
0.00
0.00
2021BMW Championship
67
T22
T22
+2.4
0.00
0.00
2020Houston Open
71
T23
5
T28
-0.6
0.00
0.00
2023FedEx St. Jude Championship
70
T23
8
T31
-0.5
0.00
0.00
2021PGA Championship
70
T23
15
T8
+3.4
0.00
0.00
2024PGA Championship
65
T24
16
T8
+4.9
0.00
0.00
2020World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship
70
T24
2
T26
+0.2
0.00
0.00
2023Cadence Bank Houston Open
67
T25
16
T9
+3.9
0.00
0.00
2021Travelers Championship
72
T27
20
T47
-1.7
0.00
0.00
2019Panama Championship
71
T27
5
T32
-1.3
0.00
0.00
2022RBC Canadian Open
66
T29
11
T18
+2.7
0.00
0.00
2018FedEx St. Jude Classic
72
T29
14
T43
-1.0
0.00
0.00
2017U.S. Open
73
T30
3
T27
+1.4
0.00
0.00
2019Pinnacle Bank Championship presented by Chevrolet
70
T32
5
T27
-0.0
0.00
0.00
2023the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
67
T32
29
3
+8.8
0.01
0.18
2021AT&T Byron Nelson
72
T34
13
T47
-1.8
0.00
0.00
2022THE PLAYERS Championship
76
T35
20
T55
-3.6
0.00
0.00
2024BMW Championship
72
T35
2
T33
+0.8
0.00
0.00
2023World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba
62
T35
32
T3
+6.9
0.00
0.00
2019Albertsons Boise Open presented by Kraft Nabisco
65
T36
25
T11
+3.8
0.00
0.00
2019AT&T Byron Nelson
69
T36
1
T35
-0.4
0.00
0.00
2014HP Byron Nelson Championship
68
T38
16
T22
+2.7
0.00
0.00
2024The American Express
65
T39
22
T17
+4.7
0.00
0.00
2021Valero Texas Open
73
T39
15
T54
-2.0
0.00
0.00
2021THE NORTHERN TRUST
70
T40
3
T43
+1.1
0.00
0.00
2019TPC Colorado Championship at Heron Lakes
69
T41
12
T29
+1.6
0.00
0.00
2024U.S. Open
72
T42
1
T41
+0.4
0.00
0.00
2020Charles Schwab Challenge
73
T42
13
T55
-2.8
0.00
0.00
2021Sanderson Farms Championship
70
T43
6
T37
+0.6
0.00
0.00
2019Chitimacha Louisiana Open presented by MISTRAS
73
T43
19
T62
-5.1
0.00
0.00
2020The Genesis Invitational
70
T46
16
T30
+2.6
0.00
0.00
2020BMW Championship
66
T47
27
T20
+5.2
0.00
0.00
2023THE CJ CUP in South Carolina
70
T47
2
T45
+1.3
0.00
0.00
2019Sanderson Farms Championship
70
T48
3
T45
-0.0
0.00
0.00
2021The Genesis Invitational
66
T49
29
T20
+4.7
0.00
0.00
2022THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT
65
T51
13
T38
+3.7
0.00
0.00
2021Vivint Houston Open
65
T54
22
T32
+4.1
0.00
0.00
2021THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK
70
T58
6
T52
+1.5
0.00
0.00
2022The American Express
67
T59
34
T25
+4.3
0.00
0.00
2019Utah Championship presented by Zions Bank
68
T61
17
T44
+0.9
0.00
0.00
2023The Open Championship
67
T63
40
T23
+6.1
0.00
0.00
2022The RSM Classic
68
T63
6
T57
+0.2
0.00
0.00
2020Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
75
T69
5
T74
-5.4
0.00
0.00