2023 Ryder Cup | Forecast

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2023 Ryder Cup Coverage

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2025

UPDATED — 2 years ago

NIGHT MODE

DAY MODE

Chance of Winning Ryder Cup

Ryder Cup Begins

25%

100%

50%

75%

Dec 31st

60.8%

32.0%

Jan 9th

60.8%

32.0%

Jan 16th

60.3%

32.4%

Jan 23rd

59.4%

33.3%

Jan 30th

58.2%

34.6%

Feb 6th

58.8%

33.6%

Feb 13th

60.6%

31.9%

Feb 20th

62.2%

30.6%

Feb 27th

61.8%

31.1%

Mar 6th

65.1%

28.2%

Mar 13th

63.1%

29.7%

Mar 20th

63.9%

28.9%

Mar 27th

64.3%

28.5%

Apr 3rd

64.5%

28.2%

Apr 10th

63.2%

29.6%

Apr 17th

65.0%

28.0%

Apr 24th

63.7%

29.1%

May 1st

63.7%

29.0%

May 8th

64.1%

28.7%

May 15th

64.0%

29.0%

May 22nd

61.3%

31.2%

May 29th

61.5%

31.1%

Jun 5th

59.9%

32.7%

Jun 12th

57.9%

34.3%

Jun 19th

58.5%

33.9%

Jun 26th

59.3%

33.2%

Jul 3rd

59.3%

33.1%

Jul 10th

59.4%

33.2%

Jul 17th

57.7%

34.7%

Jul 24th

55.6%

36.5%

Jul 31st

55.2%

36.9%

Aug 7th

55.1%

37.1%

Aug 14th

54.5%

37.8%

Aug 21st

55.7%

36.7%

Aug 28th

56.7%

35.6%

Sep 4th

54.9%

37.5%

Sep 11th

56.1%

36.0%

Sep 18th

54.0%

38.0%

Sep 25th

50.2%

41.8%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

How This Works

These probabilities come from simulations, which work as follows: first, we simulate a player's skill at the time of Ryder Cup using their current skill and age as inputs. Second, we decide who makes each team based on players' simulated skills and the number of previous Ryder Cups they've participated in. Third, we simulate each match of the Ryder Cup with these teams and determine a winner. Repeat this many times, and each team's win probability is equal to the fraction of simulations that resulted in a win.

Assumptions

1. The players considered in each simulation are shown in the "Player Pools" below.
2a. American LIV players have a 90% chance of being eligible for inclusion on Ryder Cup teams (PGA of America is not banning LIV players from participating).
2b. European LIV players have a 5% chance of being eligible for inclusion on Ryder Cup teams (LIV players are no longer DP World Tour members).

Player Pool

Europe

PROBABILITY OF

PLAYER

PREDICTED SKILLPRED. SKILL

COURSE ADJ.COURSE ADJ.

DG TOP 12DG TOP 12

MAKING TEAMMAKING TEAM