These probabilities come from simulations, which work as follows: first, we simulate a player's skill at the time of Ryder Cup using their current skill and age as inputs. Second, we decide who makes each team based on players' simulated skills and the number of previous Ryder Cups they've participated in. Third, we simulate each match of the Ryder Cup with these teams and determine a winner. Repeat this many times, and each team's win probability is equal to the fraction of simulations that resulted in a win. 1. The players considered in each simulation are shown in the "Player Pools" below.
2a. American LIV players have a 90% chance of being eligible for inclusion on Ryder Cup teams (PGA of America is not banning LIV players from participating).
2b. European LIV players have a 5% chance of being eligible for inclusion on Ryder Cup teams (LIV players are no longer DP World Tour members).