UPDATED —
NIGHT MODE
DAY MODE
Chance of Winning Ryder Cup
Ryder Cup Begins
25%
100%
50%
75%
0%
Nov 30th
52.5%
39.9%
Dec 9th
52.5%
39.9%
Dec 16th
51.3%
40.6%
Dec 23rd
51.9%
40.4%
Jan 6th
51.9%
40.3%
Jan 13th
51.7%
40.4%
Jan 20th
52.0%
40.6%
Jan 27th
52.6%
39.6%
Feb 3rd
50.1%
42.1%
Feb 10th
48.8%
43.5%
Feb 17th
50.4%
41.8%
Feb 24th
50.2%
42.2%
Mar 3rd
50.6%
41.9%
Mar 10th
49.6%
42.7%
Mar 17th
49.0%
43.2%
Mar 24th
48.8%
43.4%
Mar 31st
49.1%
43.2%
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
How This Works
These probabilities come from simulations, which work as follows: first, we simulate each player's overall skill and their skill profile (driving distance, driving accuracy, etc.) at the time of the Ryder Cup using their current skill profile and age as inputs. Second, we decide who makes each team based on players' current and simulated skills, the number of DG Points they've accumulated in recent events, and the number of previous Ryder Cups they've participated in. Third, we adjust the skill levels of the selected players to account for their course fit and history at Bethpage Black. Finally, we simulate each match of the Ryder Cup with these teams to determine a winner. Repeat this many times, and each team's win probability is equal to the fraction of simulations that resulted in a win.
Assumptions
1. The players considered in each simulation are shown in the "Player Pools" below.
2. LIV players are not treated any differently than non-LIV players. In practice, they are probably less likely to make the team because it is more difficult for them to earn an automatic qualifying spot.
3. When it becomes known that a player is ineligible (e.g. does not have DP World Tour membership, which is a requirement to make the European side), we will remove them the potential player pool.
4. When a player is a mathematical lock to make the team on points, we will lock their position on the team in the simulations.
5. There is no home-country advantage explicity modelled.
Predicted Team Skill Profiles
31.50-1.5DrivingDist.DrivingAcc.ApproachAroundGreenPutting
Overall, our model projects Team USA to be 0.07 strokes better per round (per player).
Team Europe is projected to be 0.07 strokes better per round off the tee.
Team Europe is projected to be 1.1 yards longer per drive.
Team Europe is projected to hit 0.3 more fairways per round.
Team USA is projected to be 0.05 strokes better per round on approach.
Team USA is projected to be 0.06 strokes better per round around the green.
Team USA is projected to be 0.04 strokes better per round putting.
Player Pool
Europe
PROBABILITY OF
PLAYER
PREDICTED SKILLPRED. SKILL
COURSE ADJ.COURSE ADJ.
DG TOP 12DG TOP 12
MAKING TEAMMAKING TEAM
+2.41
-0.05
99.7%
99.2%
+2.02
-0.17
97.0%
95.6%
+1.54
+0.12
79.7%
82.6%
+1.44
+0.07
73.3%
71.6%
+1.39
+0.25
69.6%
69.1%
+1.35
-0.19
66.4%
50.9%
+1.08
-0.11
43.9%
40.2%
+1.05
+0.00
40.4%
35.6%
+1.04
+0.12
40.0%
44.3%
+1.03
+0.01
38.9%
28.9%
+0.97
+0.04
33.7%
34.0%
+0.96
+0.03
33.3%
27.9%
+0.94
-0.12
31.9%
25.0%
+0.87
-0.11
26.1%
25.8%
+0.82
+0.15
22.9%
23.5%
+0.81
+0.03
22.6%
18.4%
+0.80
-0.03
21.1%
19.7%
+0.79
-0.08
20.8%
18.2%
+0.79
-0.08
20.8%
16.9%
+0.74
+0.08
17.9%
22.0%
+0.72
-0.14
16.6%
9.2%
+0.72
+0.00
16.5%
14.3%
+0.71
-0.01
16.1%
14.7%
+0.65
+0.04
13.2%
11.2%
+0.65
-0.01
13.3%
10.2%
+0.64
+0.11
13.1%
15.5%
+0.63
+0.05
12.5%
14.3%
+0.62
+0.10
12.1%
33.0%
+0.62
+0.10
11.8%
24.6%
+0.62
-0.04
11.6%
12.4%
+0.57
+0.11
9.9%
8.2%
+0.57
-0.02
9.6%
9.4%
+0.55
-0.11
9.3%
8.5%
+0.54
-0.05
8.9%
8.4%
+0.54
-0.06
8.9%
16.3%
+0.52
+0.05
7.7%
8.4%
+0.51
+0.01
8.1%
8.5%
+0.50
+0.02
7.5%
5.5%
+0.49
-0.16
7.3%
6.9%
+0.48
+0.13
6.7%
6.0%
+0.44
-0.08
5.6%
6.5%
+0.42
-0.06
5.4%
6.5%
+0.39
-0.12
4.7%
4.8%
+0.38
-0.07
4.5%
3.6%
+0.37
+0.03
4.3%
3.7%
+0.29
+0.11
2.9%
3.4%
+0.28
+0.05
2.7%
3.1%
+0.28
-0.16
2.8%
3.5%
+0.25
-0.15
2.4%
2.1%
+0.25
-0.11
2.5%
2.9%
+0.23
-0.04
2.2%
1.9%
+0.20
-0.05
1.7%
1.4%
+0.20
+0.03
2.0%
2.5%
+0.20
+0.14
1.8%
1.9%
+0.19
+0.05
1.7%
2.0%
+0.18
+0.23
1.7%
1.1%
+0.16
+0.05
1.2%
8.4%
+0.15
-0.13
1.4%
1.6%
+0.14
-0.10
1.4%
1.3%
+0.13
-0.04
1.3%
1.9%
+0.13
-0.07
1.3%
1.2%
+0.13
+0.02
1.4%
2.3%
+0.13
-0.17
1.3%
1.5%
+0.11
-0.32
1.0%
1.2%
+0.10
+0.27
1.1%
1.0%
+0.10
+0.10
1.0%
1.8%
+0.08
+0.22
1.0%
1.7%
+0.08
+0.05
0.9%
1.6%
+0.07
+0.05
1.0%
1.1%
+0.07
+0.10
0.9%
1.3%
+0.06
+0.17
0.9%
1.2%
+0.05
-0.39
0.7%
1.2%
+0.04
+0.08
0.7%
1.0%
+0.02
-0.03
0.7%
1.0%
+0.01
-0.00
0.6%
0.8%
+0.01
+0.13
0.6%
0.6%
+0.00
-0.10
0.6%
0.6%
-0.02
+0.08
0.5%
0.9%
-0.02
-0.19
0.6%
0.7%
-0.03
+0.09
0.5%
0.6%
-0.04
+0.08
0.5%
0.6%
-0.06
-0.34
0.4%
0.6%
-0.06
-0.08
0.5%
0.6%
-0.06
+0.01
0.4%
0.9%
-0.06
+0.18
0.4%
3.0%
-0.08
-0.13
0.4%
0.6%
-0.09
+0.14
0.4%
0.7%
-0.11
-0.15
0.3%
0.5%
-0.11
+0.04
0.3%
0.2%
-0.12
+0.06
0.2%
0.3%
-0.12
-0.17
0.3%
1.3%
-0.14
+0.15
0.2%
0.4%
-0.15
+0.02
0.2%
0.3%
-0.15
-0.11
0.2%
0.3%
-0.16
-0.23
0.3%
0.2%
-0.17
-0.12
0.2%
0.5%
-0.21
+0.04
0.2%
0.5%
-0.22
-0.03
0.2%
0.4%
-0.22
-0.10
0.1%
0.3%
-0.25
-0.05
0.1%
0.2%
-0.26
-0.07
0.1%
0.3%
-0.26
-0.26
0.1%
0.2%
-0.27
-0.09
0.1%
0.2%
-0.28
+0.03
0.1%
0.2%
-0.29
+0.07
0.1%
0.2%
-0.29
-0.08
0.1%
0.2%
-0.29
-0.29
0.1%
0.1%
-0.30
-0.16
0.1%
0.1%
-0.30
-0.14
0.1%
0.4%
-0.31
-0.16
0.1%
0.2%
-0.32
+0.05
0.0%
0.1%
-0.33
-0.19
0.1%
0.1%
-0.34
-0.07
0.1%
0.1%
-0.35
+0.11
0.0%
0.2%
-0.35
+0.06
0.0%
0.2%
-0.35
+0.08
0.0%
0.1%
-0.36
-0.00
0.1%
0.3%
-0.36
-0.17
0.1%
0.1%
-0.38
+0.02
0.0%
0.1%
-0.39
+0.03
0.1%
0.0%
-0.39
+0.03
0.0%
0.1%
-0.39
+0.06
0.0%
0.1%
-0.42
+0.06
0.0%
0.2%
-0.42
+0.21
0.1%
0.1%
-0.44
+0.05
0.0%
0.0%
-0.45
-0.15
0.0%
0.1%
-0.47
-0.21
0.0%
0.0%
-0.47
+0.03
0.0%
0.1%
-0.48
+0.08
0.0%
0.1%
-0.48
+0.11
0.0%
0.1%
-0.50
+0.21
0.0%
0.1%
-0.51
-0.13
0.0%
0.0%
-0.52
+0.04
0.0%
0.1%
-0.52
-0.13
0.0%
0.1%
-0.52
-0.20
0.0%
0.2%
-0.53
+0.07
0.0%
0.0%
-0.53
-0.29
0.0%
0.0%
-0.54
-0.09
0.0%
0.0%
-0.56
+0.00
0.0%
0.0%
-0.56
-0.05
0.0%
0.0%
-0.56
+0.12
0.0%
0.1%
-0.57
+0.01
0.0%
0.0%
-0.57
-0.40
0.0%
0.0%
-0.57
+0.09
0.0%
0.0%
-0.59
-0.20
0.0%
0.0%
-0.61
-0.27
0.0%
0.1%
-0.61
-0.03
0.0%
0.0%
-0.62
-0.14
0.0%
0.0%
-0.62
+0.21
0.0%
0.0%
-0.64
-0.12
0.0%
0.0%
-0.64
+0.15
0.0%
0.0%
-0.64
+0.06
0.0%
0.0%
-0.65
-0.06
0.0%
0.0%
-0.65
-0.03
0.0%
0.0%
-0.66
-0.07
0.0%
0.0%
-0.66
+0.00
0.0%
0.0%
-0.67
-0.19
0.0%
0.0%
-0.67
-0.18
0.0%
0.0%
-0.68
-0.01
0.0%
0.0%
-0.68
+0.17
0.0%
0.0%
-0.68
-0.02
0.0%
0.0%
-0.70
+0.01
0.0%
0.0%
-0.70
-0.15
0.0%
0.0%
-0.71
-0.11
0.0%
0.0%
-0.72
-0.11
0.0%
0.0%
-0.72
+0.10
0.0%
0.0%
-0.72
-0.12
0.0%
0.0%
-0.72
-0.02
0.0%
0.0%
-0.73
+0.09
0.0%
0.0%
-0.73
-0.06
0.0%
0.0%
-0.74
-0.09
0.0%
0.0%
-0.74
+0.30
0.0%
0.0%
-0.74
+0.04
0.0%
0.0%
-0.75
-0.10
0.0%
0.0%
-0.76
-0.18
0.0%
0.0%
-0.77
-0.23
0.0%
0.0%
-0.78
-0.09
0.0%
0.0%
-0.79
+0.06
0.0%
0.0%
-0.80
+0.12
0.0%
0.0%
-0.81
-0.15
0.0%
0.0%
-0.81
-0.05
0.0%
0.0%
-0.82
-0.05
0.0%
0.0%
-0.82
+0.15
0.0%
0.0%
-0.84
-0.24
0.0%
0.0%
-0.87
-0.05
0.0%
0.0%
-0.88
+0.03
0.0%
0.0%
-0.88
-0.20
0.0%
0.0%
-0.89
-0.01
0.0%
0.0%
-0.90
-0.10
0.0%
0.0%
-0.90
-0.20
0.0%
0.0%
-0.90
-0.08
0.0%
0.0%
-0.91
+0.04
0.0%
0.0%
-0.92
-0.18
0.0%
0.0%
-0.94
-0.07
0.0%
0.0%
Player Pool
USA
PROBABILITY OF
PLAYER
PREDICTED SKILLPRED. SKILL
COURSE ADJ.COURSE ADJ.
DG TOP 12DG TOP 12
MAKING TEAMMAKING TEAM
+1.98
+0.29
98.9%
99.4%
+1.81
+0.11
96.9%
97.4%
+1.51
-0.09
89.4%
91.1%
+1.38
-0.03
83.6%
82.1%
+1.34
+0.09
81.3%
79.6%
+1.28
-0.03
77.6%
79.2%
+1.19
+0.02
71.2%
74.6%
+1.11
-0.24
65.1%
61.8%
+1.10
-0.16
64.9%
63.9%
+0.92
-0.00
48.5%
60.1%
+0.90
+0.01
46.8%
48.0%
+0.81
+0.18
39.1%
33.9%
+0.77
+0.03
36.3%
31.3%
+0.67
-0.03
28.0%
26.7%
+0.62
+0.06
24.6%
23.4%
+0.56
+0.04
20.3%
18.9%
+0.52
-0.09
18.2%
20.2%
+0.50
-0.00
17.2%
15.2%
+0.47
-0.07
15.5%
15.1%
+0.42
-0.03
13.1%
15.9%
+0.34
+0.12
9.6%
8.9%
+0.33
-0.05
9.4%
15.8%
+0.29
+0.06
8.3%
7.0%
+0.29
-0.01
7.7%
8.3%
+0.29
+0.19
8.0%
6.4%
+0.28
-0.05
7.9%
7.1%
+0.28
+0.13
7.7%
6.7%
+0.26
-0.02
7.1%
6.2%
+0.25
-0.09
7.0%
6.7%
+0.24
-0.09
6.7%
6.2%
+0.24
+0.06
6.4%
6.0%
+0.21
+0.22
5.6%
5.2%
+0.16
+0.04
4.4%
4.0%
+0.12
-0.01
3.6%
8.0%
+0.06
-0.16
2.9%
3.1%
+0.03
-0.17
2.4%
2.5%
+0.01
+0.05
2.3%
2.1%
-0.02
-0.19
1.7%
1.7%
-0.02
+0.11
1.8%
2.1%
-0.05
-0.19
1.8%
1.6%
-0.06
+0.09
1.4%
1.4%
-0.07
+0.05
1.5%
1.4%
-0.07
-0.19
1.5%
1.6%
-0.09
-0.06
1.4%
1.2%
-0.12
+0.03
1.2%
1.1%
-0.13
-0.05
1.0%
0.9%
-0.15
-0.03
1.0%
1.1%
-0.16
-0.02
0.9%
0.9%
-0.18
+0.07
0.7%
0.7%
-0.18
+0.06
0.8%
0.7%
-0.23
-0.17
0.5%
0.5%
-0.24
-0.33
0.6%
0.5%
-0.25
-0.09
0.5%
0.5%
-0.25
-0.06
0.5%
0.5%
-0.26
-0.19
0.4%
0.4%
-0.26
-0.06
0.4%
0.4%
-0.28
+0.07
0.4%
0.4%
-0.28
-0.01
0.5%
0.4%
-0.29
+0.10
0.4%
0.3%
-0.29
-0.05
0.4%
0.4%
-0.30
+0.06
0.4%
0.3%
-0.30
+0.23
0.4%
0.3%
-0.30
-0.09
0.3%
0.4%
-0.31
-0.09
0.4%
0.4%
-0.31
-0.18
0.4%
0.4%
-0.33
+0.05
0.3%
0.3%
-0.35
+0.07
0.3%
0.2%
-0.36
+0.22
0.2%
0.3%
-0.36
-0.11
0.3%
0.2%
-0.45
-0.18
0.1%
0.1%
-0.45
+0.09
0.1%
0.1%
-0.47
+0.00
0.1%
0.1%
-0.48
-0.08
0.1%
0.1%
-0.49
-0.08
0.1%
0.1%
-0.49
-0.10
0.1%
0.1%
-0.51
-0.27
0.1%
0.1%
-0.52
-0.12
0.1%
0.0%
-0.53
+0.05
0.1%
0.1%
-0.53
-0.06
0.1%
0.1%
-0.53
-0.05
0.1%
0.0%
-0.53
-0.03
0.1%
0.1%
-0.55
-0.04
0.1%
0.1%
-0.55
-0.17
0.1%
0.1%
-0.56
+0.04
0.1%
0.1%
-0.57
-0.22
0.1%
0.1%
-0.58
+0.02
0.0%
0.1%
-0.59
-0.02
0.1%
0.0%
-0.62
-0.18
0.0%
0.1%
-0.63
-0.02
0.0%
0.0%
-0.64
+0.11
0.0%
0.0%
-0.65
-0.00
0.0%
0.0%
-0.66
+0.04
0.0%
0.0%
-0.66
-0.08
0.0%
0.0%
-0.66
+0.10
0.0%
0.0%
-0.66
+0.15
0.0%
0.0%
-0.67
-0.07
0.0%
0.0%
-0.68
-0.06
0.0%
0.0%
-0.70
-0.15
0.0%
0.0%
-0.72
-0.05
0.0%
0.0%
-0.74
-0.11
0.0%
0.0%
-0.74
+0.00
0.0%
0.0%
-0.75
-0.04
0.0%
0.0%
-0.76
-0.16
0.0%
0.0%
-0.76
-0.24
0.0%
0.0%
-0.76
-0.25
0.0%
0.0%
-0.76
+0.01
0.0%
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