Pressure Tool
SELECT PLAYER:
Pressure vs Performance
HELP ME UNDERSTAND
The graph below plots the relationship between 4th round starting position and performance.
"Performance" here is measured in strokes better/worse than our model's expectation at the time the round was played.
Green dots represent rounds where Dustin Johnson performed above expectation, while red dots reflect below-expectation performances.
Lastly, the blue line fits the data to highlight any trends in the position-performance relationship.
As we move left right across the plot, "pressure" rises...
As we move left right across the plot, "pressure" rises...
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
+2
+4
+6
+8
STROKES-GAINED VS EXPECTATION
TRENDLINE ONLY
PGATOUR AVG
Not enough data for trendline.
POSITION ENTERING 4TH RND
60TH
50TH
40TH
30TH
20TH
10TH
5TH
1ST
4TH Round Performances
DATE RANGE
STARTING POSITION RANGE
POSITION
STROKES-GAINED
EXPECTED WINS
EVENT
SCORESHOT
START
Δ
END
TRUE
VS "EXPECTED" VS EXPECT
BEFORE ROUND BEFORE
GIVEN HOW HE PLAYED AFTER
WIN
FILTERED AVERAGESAVERAGES (69 ROUNDS)
69.7
-
-
+1.8
20.37
18.99
24
2014World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions
66
1
1
+4.2
0.72
0.99
2014Hyundai Tournament of Champions
73
T1
5
T6
-1.5
0.29
0.00
2020TOUR Championship
68
1
1
+2.3
0.79
0.94
2018RBC Canadian Open
66
T1
1
+3.9
0.46
0.72
2018U.S. Open
70
T1
2
3
+2.7
0.28
0.16
2019RBC Heritage
77
1
27
T28
-4.9
0.34
0.00
2018FedEx St. Jude Classic
66
T1
1
+5.0
0.66
0.95
2020THE NORTHERN TRUST
63
1
1
+7.1
0.84
1.00
2018Sentry Tournament of Champions
65
1
1
+6.3
0.71
1.00
2021The Masters
68
1
1
+4.9
0.78
1.00
2010AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
74
T1
1
-0.5
0.59
0.21
2013Hyundai Tournament of Champions
68
1
1
+4.1
0.69
0.97
2018AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
72
T1
1
T2
+0.3
0.52
0.07
2016TOUR Championship
73
T1
5
T6
-3.8
0.44
0.00
2021Saudi International powered by SoftBank Investment Advisers
68
1
1
+2.2
0.60
0.64
2018World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions
77
1
1
T2
-3.2
0.93
0.30
2015U.S. Open
70
T1
1
T2
+1.7
0.24
0.08
2020BMW Championship
67
T1
1
T1
+4.1
0.31
0.69
2019Saudi International powered by SBIA
67
T1
1
+1.4
0.60
0.53
2019World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship
66
1
1
+4.9
0.84
0.99
2010U.S. Open Championship
82
1
7
T8
-6.8
0.68
0.00
2017Genesis Open
71
1
1
-0.2
0.95
0.95
2020PGA Championship
68
1
1
T2
+2.0
0.26
0.15
2016BMW Championship
67
1
1
+4.7
0.77
0.99
2011World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship
71
1
1
2
+2.0
0.42
0.32
2019Valspar Championship
74
2
4
T6
-1.7
0.33
0.00
2010PGA Championship
73
T2
3
T5
+1.3
0.12
0.00
2016Northern Trust Open
69
T2
2
4
+3.0
0.17
0.12
2020Travelers Championship
67
2
1
1
+1.8
0.27
0.15
2016RBC Canadian Open
69
T2
T2
+1.1
0.32
0.02
2016U.S. Open
69
T2
1
1
+4.9
0.17
0.42
2017Hero World Challenge
71
T2
1
T3
+1.4
0.02
0.00
2011The Barclays
65
T2
1
1
+3.8
0.26
0.50
2015World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship
69
T2
1
1
+5.3
0.08
0.31
2009AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
67
2
1
1
+4.4
0.16
0.81
2010BMW Championship
69
T2
1
1
+4.1
0.19
0.45
2015AT&T Byron Nelson
69
T2
6
T8
-0.2
0.20
0.00
2010The Barclays
72
T2
7
T9
-0.6
0.18
0.00
2019PGA Championship
69
T2
2
+5.0
0.04
0.05
2011The Open Championship
72
2
T2
+2.1
0.39
0.38
2017THE NORTHERN TRUST
66
2
1
T1
+6.3
0.16
0.59
2013TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola
69
2
3
5
+0.6
0.08
0.00
2017Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
68
T2
T2
+4.1
0.20
0.34
2017World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship
68
2
1
1
+3.8
0.30
0.35
2021The Genesis Invitational
72
T2
6
T8
-1.4
0.28
0.00
2016World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship
79
T2
12
T14
-4.3
0.12
0.00
2009HP Byron Nelson Championship
66
T3
1
T4
+2.9
0.07
0.09
2018THE PLAYERS Championship
72
3
14
T17
-1.2
0.01
0.00
2008AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
73
T3
4
T7
-0.5
0.10
0.00
2014The Open Championship
72
T3
9
T12
-0.8
0.02
0.00
2016Shell Houston Open
69
T3
3
+3.0
0.18
0.16
2016World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions
71
T3
2
T5
+0.2
0.26
0.00
2012Deutsche Bank Championship
70
T3
1
T4
+1.8
0.02
0.00
2017AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
68
T3
3
+2.9
0.03
0.01
2010Quail Hollow Championship
77
T4
25
T29
-4.0
0.09
0.00
2012AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
70
T4
1
T5
+1.8
0.03
0.00
2016the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide
71
T4
1
3
+1.9
0.13
0.00
2014U.S. Open
73
T4
T4
-0.1
0.04
0.00
2020Saudi International powered by SoftBank Investment Advisors
67
T4
2
2
+3.2
0.05
0.02
2012FedEx St. Jude Classic
66
T4
3
1
+4.1
0.11
0.30
2021Palmetto Championship at Congaree
70
T4
6
T10
-0.3
0.03
0.00
2013RBC Canadian Open
70
T5
3
T2
+2.4
0.06
0.00
2015Masters Tournament
69
T5
1
T6
+2.8
0.00
0.00
2012BMW Championship
70
T5
1
T6
+3.0
0.07
0.01
2015BMW Championship
70
T5
2
T7
+0.5
0.00
0.00
2021Vivint Houston Open
65
5
3
T2
+4.0
0.12
0.12
2016World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational
66
T5
4
1
+5.1
0.09
0.15
2010Northern Trust Open
66
T5
2
T3
+4.3
0.02
0.02
2016Masters Tournament
71
T5
1
T4
+2.5
0.07
0.00