The graph below plots the relationship between 4th round starting position and performance.
"Performance" here is measured in strokes better/worse than our model's expectation at the time the round was played.
Green dots represent rounds where Tiger Woods performed above expectation, while red dots reflect below-expectation performances.
Lastly, the blue line fits the data to highlight any trends in the position-performance relationship.
As we move left right across the plot, "pressure" rises...