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Peaking for Augusta
[2024-04-08 — REVISED FOR 2024 MASTERS]
At the pinnacle of professional golf, there are four dates that every player circles on their calendar. The first falls on the second Sunday of April as the attention of the golfing world turns to the hallowed grounds of Augusta National for the year's first Major. For some, simply securing a spot in the prestigious Masters field is the goal. For those with higher aspirations, the goal is to win.

In Tiger Woods’ prime, every tournament he played leading into April was viewed through the lens of the upcoming Masters. Tiger often emphasized how he used these tournaments to get meaningful “reps” and to reintroduce his body to the feelings of competition. These weeks were still about winning (which Tiger did plenty of), but they were also about getting his game ready for Augusta. In more recent years, other players have followed suit by similarly using the 3-month run-up to make necessary swing tweaks and equipment changes, all in a concerted effort to peak for The Masters.

Given the focus players place on peaking for the second week of April, let’s dig into how past winners have played leading up to their Masters victories:
This visualization plots the performance paths of each Masters Champion since 1997 in the two years before and after their Masters wins. Hovering over a player’s image will highlight their path. Each dot represents our estimate of a player’s skill at that point in time; the solid green line shows the average skill of all 27 winners. In an act of pure kindness, we have included a dropdown of the 2024 field, allowing you to display the current skill path of any player alongside the paths of past champions.
SKILL ESTIMATE
(IN SG / ROUND)
2024 Masters Field — select a player to see their path to the 2024 Masters
remove from plot
Past Champions — hover over players to highlight their skill path
1997
1998
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2001
2002
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2004
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2008
2009
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2011
2012
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2015
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2018
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2022
2023
There is plenty to digest and explore, but here are some takeaways we found interesting (click on player names to see their trajectory into the 2024 Masters):
The average Masters Champion since 1997 had an estimated skill of +1.63 strokes-gained per round the week prior to winning. By our numbers, Angel Cabrera (2009) was the worst champion, having a skill of only +0.5 on the eve of his Masters triumph. If you used this as a cutoff for having an outside shot at winning, 61 players in the 2023 field would qualify.
In the 2 years preceding their win, no Masters Champion saw their skill dip below 0 (the level of an average PGA Tour player).
In the 4 months leading up to The Masters, the winner’s skill level on average improved by 0.2 strokes per round. While this appears to support the peaking theory outlined above, an uptick in a player's performance before winning is seen at all PGA Tour events. It does, however, seem to be heightened for The Masters.
2024 Ludvig Aberg, Joaquin Niemann, and Xander Schauffele are three players that are building towards Augusta on a similar trajectory to past champions.
2024 Scottie Scheffler is, for the third consecutive year, trending upwards leading into Augusta. If Scottie were to win, his current skill level of +2.8 would be the highest among non-Tiger major champions since 1995 (current best is Jon Rahm, 2021 U.S. Open, +2.4).
2024 Several big names are trending downwards heading into the year's first major—Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im to name a few.
The 0.25 stroke jump in the average Masters champion’s skill pre and post-Masters reflects the fact that every one of them — even 2001 Tiger! — overperformed en route to their victories.