At the pinnacle of professional golf, there are four dates that every player circles on their calendar.
The first falls on the second Sunday of April as the attention of the golfing world turns to the hallowed grounds of Augusta National for the year's first Major.
For some, simply securing a spot in the prestigious Masters field is the goal.
For those with higher aspirations, the goal is to win.
In Tiger Woods’ prime, every tournament he played leading into April was viewed through the lens of the upcoming Masters.
Tiger often emphasized how he used these tournaments to get meaningful “reps” and to reintroduce his body to the feelings of competition.
These weeks were still about winning (which Tiger did plenty of), but they were also about getting his game ready for Augusta.
In more recent years, other players have followed suit by similarly using the 3-month run-up to make necessary swing tweaks and equipment changes, all in a concerted effort to peak for The Masters.
Given the focus players place on peaking for the second week of April, let’s dig into how past winners have played leading up to their Masters victories:
This visualization plots the performance paths of each Masters Champion since 1997 in the two years before and after their Masters wins.
Hovering over a player’s image will highlight their path.
Each dot represents our estimate of a player’s
skill at that point in time; the solid green line shows the average skill of all 28 winners.
In an act of pure kindness, we have included a dropdown of the 2025 field, allowing you to display the current skill path of any player alongside the paths of past champions.
There is plenty to digest and explore, but here are some takeaways we found interesting (click on player names to see their trajectory into the 2025 Masters):
The average Masters Champion since 1997 had an estimated skill of +1.67 strokes-gained per round the week prior to winning.
By our numbers, Angel Cabrera (2009) was the worst champion, having a skill of only +0.5 on the eve of his Masters triumph.
If you used Cabrera's +0.5 skill as a cutoff for having an outside shot at winning, 57/96 players in the 2025 field would qualify.
In the 2 years preceding their win, no Masters Champion outside of Tiger in '97 saw their skill dip below 0 (the level of an average PGA Tour player).
In the 4 months leading up to The Masters, the winner’s skill level on average improved by
0.2
strokes per round.
While this appears to support the peaking theory outlined above, an uptick in a player's performance before winning is seen at all PGA Tour events.
It does, however, seem to be heightened for The Masters.
2025 Rory McIlroy stands out in the 2025 field as the player who is both very skilled and also trending into Augusta.
Collin Morikawa is a close second.
2025 In terms of tracking the average performance path of past champions (green line), you can't get much closer than Justin Thomas this year.
2025 [Prior to Valero]
Patrick Cantlay,
Tommy Fleetwood,
Joaquin Niemann,
Russell Henley,
and Shane Lowry
are five other high-skill players that are building towards Augusta on a similar trajectory to past champions.
2025 For the first time in four years, Scottie Scheffler is not trending upwards leading into Augusta.
While his overall skill level remains high (+2.7, #1 in the field), our model has been steadily lowering Scottie's estimated skill level since his return from injury this winter.
2025 Several big names are trending downwards heading into the year's first major—Xander Schauffele,
Ludvig Aberg,
Sam Burns,
Tyrrell Hatton,
Sungjae Im,
Hideki Matsuyama,
to name a few.
The 0.25 stroke jump in the average Masters champion’s skill pre and post-Masters reflects the fact that every
one of them — even 2001 Tiger! — overperformed en route to their victories.