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When it Rains, it Pours
Exploring the mysterious link between Collin Morikawa's putting and tee-to-green performance.
CREATED — 2023-01-14 | DATA UPDATED — 2023-01-14
The 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions seemingly served as a reminder that when Collin Morikawa putts well, he contends. Buoyed by an elite approach game and accuracy off the tee, even the slightest cooperation from the flat stick will launch Morikawa to the top of any leaderboard. Or, so the story goes...

Plotting Morikawa's Strokes-Gained (SG) Tee-to-Green and SG Putting from 74 Shotlink tournaments reveals something more nuanced.
Good Timing
SG Tee-to-Green vs SG Putting, by tournament
Strokes-gained is displayed in strokes per round and is adjusted for strength of field.
: tournaments that Morikawa won.
SG Putting
SG Tee-to-Green
In 12 of Morikawa's top 17 putting performances (and 9 of his top 10) he has overperformed tee-to-green. This correlation causes fans to feel like he will contend if he can just putt well.
Average SG T2G: +1.45
-3
-2
-1
+1
+2
+3
0
-2
-1
+1
+2
+3
2021 WGC Workday Championship
1 SG TOTAL: +4.66
2020 Workday Charity Open
1 SG TOTAL: +4.60
2021 the Memorial Tournament
2 SG TOTAL: +4.64
2022 The Masters
5 SG TOTAL: +3.46
2019 3M Open
T2 SG TOTAL: +3.11
2021 RBC Heritage
T7 SG TOTAL: +2.51
2021 U.S. Open #2
T4 SG TOTAL: +2.94
2019 Barracuda Championship
1 SG TOTAL: +3.52
2021 PGA Championship
T8 SG TOTAL: +2.41
2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational
T9 SG TOTAL: +2.40
2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open
T25 SG TOTAL: +1.69
2019 John Deere Classic
T4 SG TOTAL: +2.26
2023 THE CJ CUP in South Carolina
T29 SG TOTAL: +1.33
2020 the Memorial Tournament
T48 SG TOTAL: +0.65
2020 Charles Schwab Challenge
2 SG TOTAL: +3.58
2022 TOUR Championship
T21 SG TOTAL: +1.12
2022 The Genesis Invitational
T2 SG TOTAL: +4.17
2021 THE CJ CUP
T12 SG TOTAL: +1.96
2021 The Genesis Invitational
T43 SG TOTAL: +0.48
2022 U.S. Open
T5 SG TOTAL: +3.32
2021 DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP, DUBAI
1 SG TOTAL: +2.72
2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
T7 SG TOTAL: +2.14
2022 RBC Heritage
T26 SG TOTAL: +1.42
2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions
T7 SG TOTAL: +2.16
2020 TOUR Championship
6 SG TOTAL: +2.31
2020 PGA Championship
1 SG TOTAL: +4.04
2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions
T5 SG TOTAL: +2.27
2022 THE CJ CUP
2 SG TOTAL: +3.03
2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
T14 SG TOTAL: +1.60
2021 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
T50 SG TOTAL: +0.15
2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship
T5 SG TOTAL: +2.65
2020 Safeway Open
T10 SG TOTAL: +1.93
2021 The Masters #2
T18 SG TOTAL: +1.77
2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational
T64 SG TOTAL: -0.19
2020 The Genesis Invitational
T26 SG TOTAL: +1.41
2021 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
CUT SG TOTAL: -0.01
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
2 SG TOTAL: +3.22
2021 THE PLAYERS Championship
T41 SG TOTAL: +1.09
2020 Sony Open in Hawaii
T21 SG TOTAL: +1.31
2020 WGC Mexico Championship
T42 SG TOTAL: +0.14
2020 WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
T20 SG TOTAL: +1.78
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge
T40 SG TOTAL: +0.63
2021 WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
T26 SG TOTAL: +1.07
2021 Sony Open in Hawaii
T7 SG TOTAL: +2.17
2019 BMW Championship
T48 SG TOTAL: +0.16
2022 PGA Championship
T55 SG TOTAL: +0.56
2022 BMW Championship
T44 SG TOTAL: +0.50
2020 Farmers Insurance Open
T21 SG TOTAL: +1.49
2019 RBC Canadian Open
T14 SG TOTAL: +1.62
2019 Travelers Championship
T36 SG TOTAL: +0.90
2021 Olympic Men's Golf Competition
T4 SG TOTAL: +1.85
2020 BMW Championship
T20 SG TOTAL: +1.47
2019 U.S. Open
T35 SG TOTAL: +1.35
2021 abrdn Scottish Open
T71 SG TOTAL: -1.04
2022 Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic
T18 SG TOTAL: +1.48
2019 Wyndham Championship
T31 SG TOTAL: +1.15
2020 DP World Tour Championship, Dubai
T10 SG TOTAL: +0.89
2021 Omega Dubai Desert Classic
T68 SG TOTAL: -2.13
2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
T42 SG TOTAL: +0.96
2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST
T52 SG TOTAL: +0.78
2021 TOUR Championship
T26 SG TOTAL: -0.58
2022 The Open Championship
CUT SG TOTAL: -0.45
2020 RBC Heritage
T64 SG TOTAL: -0.38
2022 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
T62 SG TOTAL: -1.24
2021 U.S. Open
CUT SG TOTAL: +0.58
2022 THE PLAYERS Championship
CUT SG TOTAL: -0.36
2021 THE NORTHERN TRUST
CUT SG TOTAL: -1.31
2021 BMW Championship
T63 SG TOTAL: -1.40
2022 the Memorial Tournament
CUT SG TOTAL: -0.70
2022 Valspar Championship
T68 SG TOTAL: -1.00
2017 Safeway Open
CUT SG TOTAL: -0.55
2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST
CUT SG TOTAL: -1.50
2022 Genesis Scottish Open
CUT SG TOTAL: -0.27
2020 Travelers Championship
CUT SG TOTAL: -2.71
Nine of Morikawa's ten best putting weeks coincided with above-average tee-to-green performances (highlighted by the yellow blob on the plot). The outlier tournament was the 2022 Scottish Open, where he was on the unlucky side of a wind-influenced draw. By matching his great putting weeks with good (and sometimes great) tee-to-green weeks, Morikawa was able to win 6 times during a two-year stretch despite averaging a relatively pedestrian +1.5 strokes-gained per round. During that same stretch, Xander Schauffele averaged +1.9 SG per round and only won once; Louis Oosthuizen averaged +1.4 and didn't win at all.

So the story is not simply when Morikawa putts well, he contends. Rather it's when Morikawa putts well, he also typically overperforms from tee-to-green, and as a result contends.

Much of professional golf is about plodding along and making the most of good putting weeks. Whether because of luck or skill, Collin Morikawa has so far made a career out of doing just that.
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