The scatterplot below plots true strokes-gained performance in majors (y-axis) versus true strokes-gained in non-majors (x-axis) for 434 players since 1983.
To make the comparison as informative as possible, we apply the following restrictions to the underlying data:
1) players must have played at least 10 Majors except Will Zalatoris (9) - he was added by special request
2) only tournaments where the player was between 20 and 40 years of age are included
3) only data from years where the player participated in at least one major is included
Major Champ Strokes-Gained
Green diagonal highlights where non-major performance = major performance. Players above diagonal have over-performed in majors; players below have under-performed.
It looks as though fitting a line through the data points would yield a steeper slope than the green diagonal.
This means that better players are more likely to fall into the "over-performers" category, and worse players are more likely to be "under-performers".
This shouldn't be that surprising as we know major championship setups/venues, on average, place an emphasis on the skills typically held by the game's elite players (mainly driving distance).
Despite his incredible Major record, Tiger didn't significantly outperform his non-major baseline in majors.
As expected, Brooks Koepka is positioned furthest above the green diagonal. His performance in majors is 1.4 strokes per round better than in non-majors. Ricky Barnes and Tommy Tolles have the next highest differences (obviously).
Max Homa, Steve Marino, Johnattan Vegas, and Ian Baker-Finch are a few notable under-performers.
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