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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)

New (Golf) World Order

With the emergence of LIV Golf and the subsequent "tiering" of the PGA Tour schedule, the top of professional golf has been sectioned off into distinct tournament types.

The plot below shows where each event of 2023 falls in terms of average player quality (measured in strokes-gained per round) and difficulty-to-win:


Rankings Update

Things were pretty quiet in our Top 10 with most of the big boys taking last week off, but Tony Finau did move into the 3rd spot with his win at the Mexico Open.

Top 10 (see all)
Player DG OWGR
Jon Rahm 1 1
Scottie Scheffler 2 2
Tony Finau 3 3 11 5
Patrick Cantlay 4 1 4
Rory McIlroy 5 1 3
Xander Schauffele 6 1 5
Sungjae Im 7 17
Jordan Spieth 8 10
Collin Morikawa 9 14 1
Cameron Young 10 16 1
Notables
Talor Gooch 21 13 60 1
Patrick Rodgers 43 8 103 7
Sergio Garcia 51 35 184 11
Steve Stricker 70 23
Thomas Pieters 81 9 49 1
Ludvig Aberg 86 47
Jimmy Walker 178 46 319 43
Phil Mickelson 188 20 74 1

The original Data Golf darling, Steve Stricker, is up to 70th and now ranks ahead of players like Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Davis, and Thomas Pieters. It’s unlikely that Stricker’s current form is fully transferable to the bigger courses of the PGA Tour and major championships, but finishing 2nd or better in 12 of your last 22 Champions Tour starts has to be worth something.

Jimmy Walker was thrown a lifeline last year when the removal of LIV defectors from the PGA Tour career money list bumped him up to 50th and granted him a 1-year exemption. He continued his run of good form with a T15 at the Mexico Open and is now up to 178th in the DG rankings, his best position on our list since mid-2020.


Perplexing Letzig

Here are the players with the most cumulative strokes-gained over or under baseline—our model’s prediction—in the last four weeks.

"ELITE" PLAYERS
Rising
Jordan Spieth: +17.9 SG in 2 events; Sungjae Im: +13.5 SG in 3 events;

Falling
Max Homa: -19.3 SG in 3 events; Dustin Johnson: -10.2 SG in 3 events;

"SUB-ELITE" PLAYERS
Rising
Brooks Koepka: +21.6 SG in 3 events; Talor Gooch: +15.3 SG in 3 events;

Falling
Keith Mitchell: -23.1 SG in 3 events; Paul Casey: -18.2 SG in 3 events;

"AVERAGE" PLAYERS
Rising
Emiliano Grillo: +19.3 SG in 2 events; Beau Hossler: +17.5 SG in 3 events;

Falling
Peter Malnati: -16.1 SG in 2 events; Thriston Lawrence: -15.3 SG in 2 events;

"BELOW AVERAGE" PLAYERS
Rising
Phil Mickelson: +26.8 SG in 3 events; Ben Silverman: +22.5 SG in 3 events;

Falling
Marcus Armitage: -22.1 SG in 2 events; Dylan Frittelli: -18.9 SG in 3 events;


Player Feature


Week That Was

Winner Event True SG xWin
T. Finau PGA — Mexico Open +4.34 0.916
T. Gooch LIV — Singapore +3.72 0.149
L. Aberg AM — Big 12 Champ +3.49 0.29
S. Alker SNR — Insperity Inv +3.33 0.044
B. Kohles KFT — HomeTown Champ +2.52 0.003
H. Iwata JPN — The Crowns +2.15 0.002
P. Larrazabal DPT — Korea Champ +2.06 0.002
R. Gouveia CHA — Abu Dhabi Challenge +1.98 0.001
Explainers: True SG, xWins

Behind Tony Finau at the Mexico Open, the next best performance of last week went to… drumroll please… Ludvig Aberg at the Big 12 Championship. Aberg won by 8 strokes, but more importantly (from an SG perspective), was 15 strokes better than 5th place. We estimated his performance to be worth 3.5 True SG per round and 0.3 expected PGA Tour wins.

Given that this doesn’t quite pass the eye test, it’s worth breaking it down: the average player skill in the Big 12 Championship was -3.1 strokes/round relative to an average PGA Tour player. (For reference, we estimate that the NCAA D1 Championship field is typically 2.3 strokes worse than the PGA Tour baseline.) Aberg gained 6.6 strokes per round over this field, which yields the 3.5 True SG value (6.6 - 3.1 = 3.5) referenced above. When scoring is more spread out at a tournament, this allows for more outlier SG numbers to occur. It’s difficult to say whether these numbers are “accurate” or not; it depends whether you think the greater separation is occurring because of skill or simply because of course features. If this tournament was played on a different course—one where players’ scores naturally bunched closer together—a performance like Aberg’s might not have been possible. This was a question we explored in a Model Talk post last summer.


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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)