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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)

Week That Was

The big story from last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions was Collin Morikawa’s collapse over the final 5 holes. Morikawa bogeyed holes 14-16, a 3-hole stretch that played 1.2 strokes under par for the field. According to our live model, Morikawa’s win probability peaked at 97.5% through 7 holes on Sunday when he held a 7-shot lead over Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick. Even before the first bogey at 14—which coincided with a Rahm eagle on 15—Morikawa was firmly in control with a 94% win probability.

This made us wonder where Morikawa’s finish ranks among the biggest collapses on the PGA Tour. Shown below are the highest win probabilities that didn’t get converted into a win since the start of the 2019 season:

1. Collin Morikawa, 2023 Sentry TOC
97% win probability, 7-shot lead with 11 holes to play. Lost to Jon Rahm by 2 strokes.

2. Russell Henley, 2022 Sony Open in Hawaii
96% win probability, 5-shot lead with 9 holes to play. Lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff.

3. Justin Thomas, 2020 Workday Open
96% win probability, 3-shot lead with 3 holes to play. Lost to Collin Morikawa () in a playoff.

4. Three tied at 91%
Tony Finau, 2020 Phoenix Open
Wyndham Clark, 2021 Bermuda
Sungjae Im, 2020 Sanderson Farms


Rankings Update

As we mentioned last week, the skill gap between Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy has been shrinking since last fall. Rahm's ranking did not improve after his win yesterday but his DG Index—our model’s estimate of a player’s skill measured in strokes-gained per round—jumped up to +2.45, a mere 0.04 strokes behind Rory.

Top 10 (see all)
Player DG OWGR
Rory McIlroy 1 1
Jon Rahm 2 5
Scottie Scheffler 3 2
Tony Finau 4 1 12
Patrick Cantlay 5 1 4
Xander Schauffele 6 2 6
Will Zalatoris 7 6 7
Matthew Fitzpatrick 8 3 9
Justin Thomas 9 2 8
Sungjae Im 10 1 19
Notables
Collin Morikawa 13 5 11
Tom Kim 18 3 14 1
Taylor Montgomery 33 4 61 1
Gordon Sargent 182 11
Kazuki Higa 243 1 67 1

Will Zalatoris finished T11 in his first start since suffering a back injury in August. While not spectacular, this performance has eased Letzig's concerns regarding Will Z’s ability to quickly return to form. He jumped 6 spots—up to 7th—in the DG rankings.


Player Feature


Digits Of The Week

41.3%

The percentage of Korn Ferry graduates who end up back on the Korn Ferry Tour—or worse—after their post-grad PGA Tour season. Read our blog post visualizing the diverse career paths of KFT grads.


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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)