The big story from last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions was Collin Morikawa’s collapse over the final 5 holes. Morikawa bogeyed holes 14-16, a 3-hole stretch that played 1.2 strokes under par for the field. According to our live model, Morikawa’s win probability peaked at 97.5% through 7 holes on Sunday when he held a 7-shot lead over Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick. Even before the first bogey at 14—which coincided with a Rahm eagle on 15—Morikawa was firmly in control with a 94% win probability.

This made us wonder where Morikawa’s finish ranks among the biggest collapses on the PGA Tour. Shown below are the highest win probabilities that didn’t get converted into a win since the start of the 2019 season:

1. Collin Morikawa, 2023 Sentry TOC
97% win probability, 7-shot lead with 11 holes to play. Lost to Jon Rahm by 2 strokes.

2. Russell Henley, 2022 Sony Open in Hawaii
96% win probability, 5-shot lead with 9 holes to play. Lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff.

3. Justin Thomas, 2020 Workday Open
96% win probability, 3-shot lead with 3 holes to play. Lost to Collin Morikawa () in a playoff.

4. Three tied at 91%
Tony Finau, 2020 Phoenix Open
Wyndham Clark, 2021 Bermuda
Sungjae Im, 2020 Sanderson Farms

Rankings Update

As we mentioned last week, the skill gap between Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy has been shrinking since last fall. Rahm's ranking did not improve after his win yesterday but his DG Index—our model’s estimate of a player’s skill measured in strokes-gained per round—jumped up to +2.45, a mere 0.04 strokes behind Rory.

Top 10 (see all)
Player	DG		OWGR
Rory McIlroy	1	—	1	—
Jon Rahm	2	—	5	—
Scottie Scheffler	3	—	2	—
Tony Finau	4	1	12	—
Patrick Cantlay	5	1	4	—
Xander Schauffele	6	2	6	—
Will Zalatoris	7	6	7	—
Matthew Fitzpatrick	8	3	9	—
Justin Thomas	9	2	8	—
Sungjae Im	10	1	19	—
Notables
Collin Morikawa	13	5	11	—
Tom Kim	18	3	14	1
Taylor Montgomery	33	4	61	1
Gordon Sargent	182	11	—	—
Kazuki Higa	243	1	67	1

Will Zalatoris finished T11 in his first start since suffering a back injury in August. While not spectacular, this performance has eased Letzig's concerns regarding Will Z’s ability to quickly return to form. He jumped 6 spots—up to 7th—in the DG rankings.

Player Feature

Tom Kim

age 20 yrs, 7 months

dg rank 18th — owgr rank 14th

weeks in dg top 100 25

dg skill +1.35 strokes-gained / round¹

style accurate driver, elite iron player

career wins
PGA Tour: 2
Asian Tour: 1
KPGA Korean Tour: 2

player comps
2013 Jordan Spieth (similarity score²: 60.6)
2018 Sungjae Im (44.3)
2018 Joaquin Niemann (40.3)

Letzig's Insight
There aren’t any great comps to Kim in our database: his most similar peer (2013 Spieth) registers a score only slightly above the expected similarity (50) between two randomly-chosen PGA Tour players. The start of Kim’s PGA Tour career does bear a striking resemblance to 2019 Collin Morikawa (not eligible as an “official” comp due to the age difference). Considering all players since 2004, only Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy have achieved a higher skill level before the age of 21.

1 Relative to an average PGA Tour field.

2 Similarity scores are uniformly distributed from 0 (least similar) to 100 (most similar). Similarity is based on overall skill and playing style over the previous 3 seasons and a measure of career-long performance. Comps are restricted to players of the same age.

Digits Of The Week

41.3 %

The percentage of Korn Ferry graduates who end up back on the Korn Ferry Tour—or worse—after their post-grad PGA Tour season. Read our blog post visualizing the diverse career paths of KFT grads.