On Saturday at The Players Championship, Wyndham Clark decided to re-tee after chunking his tee shot into the water on 17. Clark hit a good 3rd shot and made the putt to save a crucial bogey, seemingly validating his choice to forgo the drop zone. However, it made us interested in what the data said about his decision.

Of the 866 tee shots hit into the water on the 17th hole since 2005, 742 players elected to hit their 3rd shot from the drop zone, 111 re-teed, and the remaining 13 players played from somewhere else (which we’ll ignore here). Overall, 87% of players went to the drop zone; the drop rates by pin position were 93%, 90%, and 80% for the right, back, and front pins, respectively.

Using our baseline functions (which tell us the expected strokes to hole out from a given distance and lie), we can estimate how much easier we would expect the drop zone to be simply due to it being a shorter shot. For right pins, the tee shot has averaged 133 yards and the drop zone shot 89 yards, which yields an expected advantage of 0.11 strokes. For back pins, these numbers are 145 yards, 88 yards, and 0.15 strokes, and for front pins they are 125 yards, 73 yards, and 0.13 strokes.

When comparing the number of strokes to hole out from the tee versus the drop zone, we can’t use raw averages because on more difficult days there will be more water balls, and hence more shots from the drop zone. Overall on the 17th hole, the raw scoring average is 3.13 while the average strokes to hole out from the drop zone is 3.03, which would imply an advantage of 0.1 strokes for dropping versus re-teeing. However, if we only compare the drop zone vs. tee box scoring averages on the same day (and then average across all days, with appropriate weighting), this advantage increases to 0.2 strokes.

The images below show the scoring averages from our two spots of interest for the 3 pin positions on 17 (the drop zone scoring averages are adjusted to account for the issue described above):

It’s interesting that (relatively) more players decide to re-tee with the front pin even though it’s actually the back pin where the drop zone offers the smallest advantage. Compared to the advantage you would expect based on distance alone (mentioned above), the drop zone provides a larger advantage than expected to front and right pins, but a smaller one to back pins. Of course, the data says to go to the drop zone regardless of the pin—which isn’t surprising given that the shot is significantly shorter–but given the pressure and atmosphere around the 17th hole, players probably put more weight on what feels comfortable than they would in more normal circumstances.

Despite making a great bogey save, Clark probably gave up a few tenths of a stroke in expectation by choosing to re-tee.

Notes From TPC Sawgrass

We spent Friday through Sunday on the grounds at TPC Sawgrass last week; here are some thoughts we came away from the tournament with:

Aaron Rai is an interesting pro golfer: he wears two black gloves and worn-out golf shoes, has iron covers, uses a smaller stand bag, and tees his ball up on something resembling the step-up Martini. And he absolutely flushes it. We watched Rai play quite a few holes, and almost every drive we saw was striped down the middle, followed by a methodical club twirl and a few steps forward to snatch up his tee. On Sunday after Rai made the (somewhat) puzzling decision to go for the 9th green in 2 with a driver off the deck, we started joking he was like the Iron Byron; he just needed a caddy to pick his club, line his feet and clubface up, and tell him to swing away. To be fair to Rai, his game is not that robotic: on that same hole he hit a beautiful spinning pitch from 50 yards to save his par.

Matt Wallace missed the cut but was practicing at TPC Sawgrass on both Saturday and Sunday. The only event we attended last year was the RBC Heritage, where Wallace also missed the cut and we also saw him on the range over the weekend. It’s hard not to respect that work ethic, but Wallace could probably do with a day off: the only player in our top 150 who has played more events than him in the last 12 months is Ryo Hisatsune.

We weren’t the biggest fans of Wyndham Clark’s game before last week but he kind of won us over as the week went on. On TV his swing can come across as a bit violent, but in person it looked more controlled. His ball flight was noticeably stronger than almost all players we watched—on Friday I wrote down that Clark’s 3-wood off 1 tee was the nicest shot I saw all day.

Collin Morikawa seemed down on himself, never really satisfied with the strike or outcome of a shot. He was a good reminder for us that at any given time there are 10-15 insanely talented players going through it out there: disengaged, frustrated, waiting for their game to turn the corner.

J.J. Spaun made a 25-footer from the fringe on 18 on Friday to make the cut on the number and gave a pretty big fist pump. The crowd seemed to be aware of what the putt meant. Cuts and full fields can add a lot of value to Friday afternoons with many minor dramas like Spaun’s unfolding.

Saw one guy in a Ripper GC hat. No other LIV sightings.

Rickie Fowler was one of the first groups off on Sunday. As we arrived at the course, we saw him getting interviewed after his round around 11:30 and assumed he must have gone low (he didn’t). He was discussing the steps that Wyndam Clark has taken in the past year. Moments later we saw him again signing autographs for kids.

Xander Schauffele was rehearsing his swing constantly, not just during his pre-shot routine but also while waiting around the tee box area. He went to the driving range after his Saturday round to work on things. On Sunday he hit a weak block-fade on 4—one of the worst shots we saw all week—almost into the water. It’s hard to say Xander choked or couldn’t close when he clearly was battling his swing.

On Sunday it seemed like the crowd was pulling slightly more for Wyndham over Xander. Rory and Scottie pulled a lot of people away from the final group, even before Scottie holed out for eagle on 4.

In general, being at the tournament, especially on Sunday, reminds you that these guys aren’t duking it out and trading blows like we imagine on TV. At times Scheffler was 2000 yards away from Clark and Schauffele, and watching them on the front nine it wasn’t obvious they were aware he was making a charge (I think Wyndham said he was first aware of what Scheffler was doing on 11 tee). Players obviously feel pressure, but you also get the sense they are very much in their own worlds out there, just taking it a shot at a time, trying to post the best number they can.

As I was heading out to 14 tee to watch Scheffler, I saw someone that I didn’t immediately recognize hit a tee shot off 14. It started right and kept moving right, and I was surprised that no volunteers were warning people a ball was incoming. I was concerned for all of our safety until I realized it was so far right that it was going to land in the middle of the pond in front of 12 tee. Turns out the tee shot was hit by Taylor Montgomery (who ended up finishing T11 after hitting it in the water on 17 as well). Amazingly, as I passed him he was smiling at two kids cheering him on as he moseyed down the right rope line. (It's worth watching the shot on his shot tracker.)

TPC Sawgrass is an incredible venue for watching a golf tournament. There are lots of (un)natural viewing spots due to the hills around the tees and greens, which allow crowds that are 10 rows deep to have good views of the players and their shots. The 17th hole is of course the best example of this: we came to 17 late on Sunday to watch the final groups and were still able to get a spot on the hill. It’s the only tournament we’ve been to where you can follow the final groups all the way to the clubhouse.

Rankings Update

Scottie Scheffler's back-to-back wins have increased his gap over #2 in our rankings to 0.64 strokes per round—an amount that is surprisingly small in the history of the DG Rankings due to a certain golfer.

Top 10 (see all)
Player	DG		OWGR
Scottie Scheffler	1	—	1	—
Xander Schauffele	2	—	5	1
Rory McIlroy	3	—	2	—
Jon Rahm	4	—	3	—
Viktor Hovland	5	—	6	2
Ludvig Aberg	6	5	9	1
Collin Morikawa	7	—	18	3
Patrick Cantlay	8	2	7	—
Joaquin Niemann	9	—	84	4
Wyndham Clark	10	11	4	1
Notables
Max Homa	12	4	10	2
Hideki Matsuyama	19	7	12	5
Brian Harman	21	20	8	1
Si Woo Kim	26	26	44	9
Taylor Montgomery	66	21	80	15
Austin Eckroat	69	1	48	—
Maverick McNealy	71	24	99	30
David Puig	84	17	105	27
Abraham Ancer	85	5	190	7
Paul Casey	93	1	—	—
Nate Lashley	107	35	116	23
Joel Dahmen	156	68	146	55
John Catlin	313	90	221	214

While Scheffler's stock has never been higher, a handful of DG Top 10 staples are trending in the wrong direction with Augusta looming around the corner:

Obviously they still have time to turn it around before April, but we've found that Masters Champions tend to trend upwards in the buildup to winning a Green Jacket.

After opening with a 74, Joel Dahmen shot rounds of 67, 67, 68 to finish T11 at The Players (losing only to Brian Harman and Scottie Scheffler in rounds 2 through 4). Dahmen started the week ranked 171st in the FedExCup but is now 83rd, back in contention for a spot in the playoffs (top 70) after missing out last year.

Maverick McNealy continued his run of good play at The Players, finishing T9. Two months ago, Mav was ranked 197th in our rankings but has jumped up 126 spots to 71st in the last 6 weeks.