Brain Drain (cont'd)
Here is an updated version of a plot we put in our first newsletter of 2024.
It shows the tour affiliation of the top 100 DG-ranked players in every year since 1984, where a player’s tour is assigned based on where they played the majority of their recent non-major rounds:
Extending the data back to 1984 highlights another low-water mark for PGA Tour hegemony: 1993.
At the end of that season, our top 15 included four full-time European Tour players in Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Ian Woosnam, and Colin Montgomerie.
Last year when discussing this plot we chose the glass-half-full interpretation of the current state of the PGA Tour: "they went from having an
absurd 91% of the top 100 in 2022 to just 75% in 2023, which puts them back roughly where they were in 2009-2014 when the DPWT was at its peak".
Now, having been weakened again in 2024, the glass-half-empty interpretation might better apply: only 2 years out of the last 41 have seen fewer top-100 players on the PGA Tour than 2024 did.
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Building Intuition on DG Points
We've spent the last few newsletters introducing Data Golf Points (DGPs) and how they can add context to players' seasons and careers beyond our adjusted strokes-gained averages.
To build some intuition on how these two metrics are linked—but also how they differ—let's look at the relationship between SG and DGPs
using every season played since 1983:
Some takeaways:
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Adjusted strokes-gained and DG Points are strongly positively correlated (higher SG usually means more points).
While this may seem obvious, it highlights the fact that in order to accomplish a lot (wins, top 5s in majors, etc.) players need to consistently play well, and not just peak for the big weeks while slacking during the others.
Case in point: of the 33 100+ point seasons since 1983, Brooks Koepka (2019) is the only player to do it while averaging less than +2.0 adjusted SG per round (+1.8).
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As the plot makes clear, there is lots of variation around the general trendline that links SG and points.
Patrick Cantlay has logged 4 seasons with a higher strokes-gained average than Brooks' 2019 season but has never come close to earning 100 points.
In fact, Koepka (lime dots) has routinely earned more points than his strokes-gained average would predict, while Cantlay (orange) has often earned less.
A lot of this is driven by the fact that Brooks has proven his skill level at the majors exceeds his non-major baseline, something Cantlay certainly cannot claim.
One way to think about this is that an SG average sets bounds on how many points a player is likely
to earn in a season or career, but there are other skills and variables (peaking for big events, course fit at
majors, playing with a lead) that can still differentiate players—and DG Points captures some of this.
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It looks like +2.5 strokes-gained per round is the minimum "skill" required to have a truly historic DGP season—Spieth (2015) and Singh (2004) both logged 150+ point seasons around this level.
Intuitively this is the skill level required to, with a bit of luck, contend week in, week out and have a solid shot at all the majors.
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Anything above +3.0 adjusted SG for an entire season will inevitably result in a bunch of wins, and, in turn, points (Tiger 1997-2009, Scottie 2024).
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Rankings Update
After an historic 9-win, +3.2 True SG, and 173 DG Point 2024 season, Scottie Scheffler is finally making his 2025 debut after injuring his hand over the holidays.
Despite not playing since the Hero World Challenge, his lead at the top of the DG Rankings is still almost a full stroke per round.
With Schauffele hurt and coming off of two lackluster starts, the battle for #2 is competitive again.
McIlroy, Rahm—assuming he's good at night golf—and Morikawa are probably the most likely to make a push towards Scheffler, but Justin Thomas is the hottest of the bunch according to our trend table.
He also passed my eye test with flying colors at the American Express—I think JT is primed for a huge 2025.
At 115th in the DG rankings, Jordan Spieth is also returning from an injury (wrist) this week.
This is the second time his DG ranking has fallen outside of the top 100 since his ascension in 2013.
In 2019-2020, when he initially fell off from his 2015-2018 highs, the issue was driving accuracy.
This time it's been the rest of his game—he drove it at peak-Spieth levels in 2024, but was just average on approach and on/around the greens.
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Ryder Cup Update
With most players having made their 2025 season debuts, our Ryder Cup
roster projections are
starting to take shape. At this early point in the year, these probabilities are
primarily driven by a player’s current form, but past Ryder Cup experience is also accounted for.
On the American side, there are 3 players who will very likely be on the team: Scheffler (>99%), Morikawa (90%), and Schauffele (86%).
Justin Thomas (80%) sits just below these three, which might seem surprising,
but Thomas has been in great form and is up to 8th in our rankings.
The next 3 most likely US players are Cantlay (64%), DeChambeau (55%), and Burns (40%).
Bryson is a bit of an unknown with how little he’s played recently.
Like Thomas, Burns has quietly been playing solid without notching a win.
The remaining 5 spots for Team USA are fully up for grabs, with Keegan Bradley leading the way
at 32% followed by 19 players with chances between 15% and 26%.
This list includes fresh faces like Davis Thompson, Akshay Bhatia, and Max Greyserman, LIV players in Koepka and Reed, veteran Ryder Cuppers in Finau, Spieth, and Fowler, and more recent members of Team USA in Theegala, Henley, and Clark.
Two players whose Ryder Cup chances are not fancied by the model are
Brian Harman and Billy Horschel, both of whom have just a 3% probability of making the team.
The story is a bit simpler for Team Europe. McIlroy (98%), Rahm (96%),
and Hatton (94%) are all virtual locks, while Aberg (83%) and Fleetwood (79%)
fall just short of lock status. The next tier of players includes MacIntyre (61%),
Rasmus Hojgaard (55%), Lowry (53%), Straka (48%), and Hovland (48%).
Hovland’s probability feels low given his pedigree and central role in
Europe’s victory at Marco Simone, but form is king in golf, and Hovland hasn’t
had much of it recently.
For the final 2 European spots, there are 5 players between 30% and 43%–Garcia, Rai,
Noren, Harry Hall, and Matt Fitzpatrick. Our model is probably too high on Sergio
(and Paul Casey for that matter, who we are giving a 21% chance to make the team!)
because of the LIV issue, which decreases his chances of a pick.
It seems hard to believe that Fitzpatrick might not be on the team,
but he’s fallen to 49th in our rankings on a long run of mediocre form.
Two members of the most recent European team who have their work cut out
to make it to Bethpage are Nicolai Hojgaard (11.5%) and Justin Rose (1.5%). Rose, who
will turn 45 this year, hasn’t been the same player since 2023,
despite flashing some of his old form in the majors last year.
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