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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
49. Scottie's Scaries (cont'd) (2024-02-21)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)

Programming Note

Apologies for the lack of a newsletter last week—it was our first (unplanned) missed week since we started the newsletter in January 2023. Going forward, we will be taking the odd week off when we are particularly busy with other projects. We are planning to do around 20-25 newsletters in 2024.

Rankings Update

Tommy Fleetwood—who we recently discovered is younger than Max Homa—won the Dubai Invitational last week and jumped back inside the DG Top 10. Fleetwood has now won 7 times on the DP World Tour.

Top 10 (see all)
Player DG OWGR
Scottie Scheffler 1 — 1 —
Rory McIlroy 2 1 2 —
Viktor Hovland 3 1 4 —
Patrick Cantlay 4 — 6 1
Xander Schauffele 5 — 5 1
Collin Morikawa 6 — 12 1
Jon Rahm 7 — 3 —
Max Homa 8 — 7 —
Tommy Fleetwood 9 3 11 4
Tyrrell Hatton 10 1 15 1
Notables
Russell Henley 12 4 22 5
Keegan Bradley 21 7 16 —
Justin Thomas 22 1 28 1
Byeong Hun An 23 8 39 13
Harris English 32 8 35 2
Andrew Putnam 37 12 57 5
Grayson Murray 174 81 46 86
Carl Yuan 188 80 135 50
Francesco Molinari 265 99 206 50

Grayson Murray won the Sony Open for his 2nd win in his last 4 starts, vaulting himself into the top 50 of the OWGR (but only the top 200 of DG). Murray’s 2023 season was feast or famine, with 2 wins and 12 missed cuts (or WDs) in 26 starts.

Like Murray, Carl Yuan also made a big move into the DG Top 200—thanks in part to this bomb to right field on the 18th hole at Waialae.

Justin Thomas struggled in 2023, but his game may have already—quietly—turned the corner. To end the year JT rattled off 3 consectuive top-5s (Fortinet, Nedbank, Hero), moving him from 59th to 22nd in the DG rankings. Restricting to their last 12 rounds played, only 1 player (Morikawa) has a higher strokes-gained average than Thomas.

After undergoing hip surgery in 2022, Harris English is slowy regaining the form that earned him a captain's selection onto the 2021 Ryder Cup team. English fell to 164th in our rankings last winter, but has climbed his way back to 32nd. His SG moving average is #trending:

Digits Of The Week

2.1

The number of “expected” wins Keegan Bradley has cost himself with his play in final rounds throughout his career. According to our pressure page, Bradley’s expected win total based on his pre-final round position is 5.6, while post-round it’s just 3.5. (See here for an example on how expected wins works in this context.) In fact, Bradley has won 6 times in his career, meaning he’s been lucky—in the sense that his competitors have played worse than expected—to win as much as he has.

Player Feature

Site Updates

While we weren't able to get a newsletter out last week, we did manage to make upgrades to the strokes-gained query tool. Users can now create filters based on tournaments, courses, and round numbers. (This update is only available to DG subscribers.) For example, here are the best strokes-gained performers from the 2023 major championships:

We also published a new Model Talk on the changes we made to our model during the off-season.


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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
49. Scottie's Scaries (cont'd) (2024-02-21)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)