NIGHT MODE
DAY MODE
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Past Issues
63. Tiger Hunting (2024-12-11)
62. Was the FedExCup Fair? (2024-11-28)
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)

After the Peak

Scottie Scheffler just surpassed the +2.5 skill mark for the first time, which is typically the level of performance required to be the best player in the world in any given season. Below we’ve plotted the evolution in skill of the 26 times a player (excluding Tiger, because he ruins the plot) has reached the +2.5 mark since 1995:

Players can appear in the plot more than once—Rory is in it 5 times—as long as there was at least a year between their reaching the +2.5 level. The main takeaway is how difficult it is to sustain this level of play for any length of time. Jordan Spieth was an unstoppable force in 2015 and to a lesser degree in 2017, but he’s struggled to maintain an elite skill level in the 5 years since.

Scheffler’s game appears rock solid right now, and it’s hard to imagine his game falling off anytime soon. But that’s also how it likely felt for most of the players included in the plot above. Success is fleeting in golf, and if history is any indication Scheffler’s time at the top will be shorter than we think.


Rankings Update

We don't need to tell you what's notable about our rankings this week because Twitter already has (thanks NLU).

Top 10 (see all)
Player DG OWGR
Jon Rahm 1 2 1
Scottie Scheffler 2 1 1 1
Rory McIlroy 3 1 3
Patrick Cantlay 4 4
Tony Finau 5 12 1
Xander Schauffele 6 7 1
Max Homa 7 6 1
Tyrrell Hatton 8 5 17 7
Viktor Hovland 9 2 9 2
Collin Morikawa 10 11 1


Ryder Cup Watch

With just under 7 months until the festivities kick off at Marco Simone, the likely combatants are starting to take shape for both sides. For the US, both the data and the eye test probably agree on 10 players who are likely to make it, while the final 2 spots are much less certain. Among the contenders to snatch one of the final positions are Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, and Taylor Montgomery.

On the European side there are 5 virtual locks for the team in McIlroy, Rahm, Hatton, Hovland, and Fitzpatrick. The next tier of players includes Fleetwood, Lowry, and Rose, who are all over 50% to make the squad according to our model. Hojgaard (Rasmus), Smith, Noren, and Power round out the (likely) current European team.

You can explore the full forecast here.


Player Feature


Week That Was

Winner Event True SG xWin
S. Scheffler PGA — THE PLAYERS +4.83 0.986
J. Campillo DPT — Magical Kenya Open +2.31 0.004
L. Dobbelaar ANZ — NZ PGA Champ +0.93 0.0
S. Wears-T AFR — Mediclinic Invitational +0.92 0.0
W. Ormsby ASA — Int'l Series Thailand +0.81 0.0
Explainers: True SG, xWins

All hail King Scottie.


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Past Issues
63. Tiger Hunting (2024-12-11)
62. Was the FedExCup Fair? (2024-11-28)
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)