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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
49. Scottie's Scaries (cont'd) (2024-02-21)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)

Rankings Update

With his win at the Dubai Desert Classic, Rory McIlroy grabbed the #1 spot in the DG rankings after losing it to Jon Rahm last week. This is yet another impressive performance from Rory in a torrid run that began at last year's Masters. McIlroy's current skill index—our model's estimate of how good a player is in strokes-gained per round—is now +2.7. This is the highest index he's ever achieved and puts him 8th on our all-time list, one spot ahead of Rahm (again).

Top 10 (see all)
Player DG OWGR
Rory McIlroy 1 1 1 —
Jon Rahm 2 1 3 —
Tony Finau 3 2 12 —
Scottie Scheffler 4 1 2 —
Xander Schauffele 5 1 6 —
Patrick Cantlay 6 — 5 —
Max Homa 7 7 13 3
Collin Morikawa 8 5 7 1
Sungjae Im 9 2 18 1
Will Zalatoris 10 3 8 1
Notables
Dustin Johnson 14 2 46 2
Jason Day 24 8 92 12
Rickie Fowler 65 21 99 12
Michael Thorbjornsen (a) 166 52 414 30
Chris Gotterup 243 50 382 3

Max Homa makes his debut inside the top 10 after gaining 4.2 strokes per round en route to winning the Farmers Insurance Open. Like McIlroy, Homa also reached a new skill index high this week at +1.74, good for 114th best all-time.

Looking Ahead to Marco Simone

With the 2023 Ryder Cup slowly creeping into view, we thought it was a good time to publicize our model's forecast of the upcoming matches.

Our probabilities are 58% USA win, 34.5% Europe win, and 7.5% Tie, which is roughly in line with the current betting odds. Despite the European team having (by far) the two best players in the world in Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, the depth of the U.S. team overwhelms the Europeans. Currently we are projecting USA’s 8th man to be better than Europe's 3rd.

For more insight into the 2023 Ryder Cup, including match histories and our predictions of who will make each team, visit our dedicated hub.

Player Feature

Going Low

In the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open—where the field’s average score was just over 74—Max Homa dissected Torrey Pines (South) in 66 shots to win. He beat the field on all but two holes, and hit 7 great shots and no poor ones. This all added up to a strokes-gained total of +8.4 (after adjusting for field strength).

While impressive, we rate Homa's 66 as only the 32nd best final round performance to win since 2004 (right behind Smylie Kaufman's 61 to win the Shriners in 2016 ). Here are the top 10:

1. Ryo Ishikawa, 2010 The Crowns (Japan Tour) — Shot 58 (+12.1 true strokes-gained)
2. Rory McIlroy, 2010 Quail Hollow Champ — 62 (+11.1)
3. Henrik Stenson, 2016 Open Championship — 63 (+10.3)
4. Chris Couch, 2005 Rheem Classic (Korn Ferry) — 60 (+10.3)
5. Rickie Fowler, 2018 Hero World Challenge — 61 (+10.2)
6. Vijay Singh, 2008 Deutsche Bank Champ — 63 (+9.8)
7. Charley Hoffman, 2010 Deutsche Bank Champ — 62 (+9.6)
8. Tiger Woods, 2006 Deutsche Bank Champ — 63 (+9.4)
9. Tommy Gainey, 2012 McGladrey Classic — 60 (+9.3)
10. Hideki Matsuyama, 2017 WGC-Bridgestone — 61 (+9.1)

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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
49. Scottie's Scaries (cont'd) (2024-02-21)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)