When Tiger was at his SG-era peak (2006-2009), he gained 1.9 strokes per round on his approach shots alone. Only 2 players–Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk–gained more strokes per round counting all their shots during this period.

Scottie Scheffler did something similar last week at the Memorial when he gained 3.28 strokes/round on approach, which was better than every other player’s total SG for the week except Colin Morikawa (+3.33). And Scheffler has been doing similar things all year: his season-long SG:APP of +1.66/round is bested by the season-long total SG marks of just 7 players. Not quite at Tiger levels, but getting close.

This made us interested in the full skill breakdown of ‘06-’09 Tiger versus ‘24 Scheffler. Here it is:

Of course, the fact that Tiger’s “peak” here lasted 4 years, and that it was just one of a few multi-year peaks we could have chosen from, are what make Tiger’s career numbers basically untouchable. Still, Scheffler has produced peak-Tiger numbers from tee-to-green for 2 years now–and is showing no signs of slowing down.

To give some context to what Scheffler is doing relative to players not named Tiger Woods, here are the best 3-year windows for everyone in the top 100 of our all-time list, measured by true strokes-gained per round (x-axis) and win percentage (y-axis):

Only Greg Norman from '93 to '95 had a higher strokes-gained average than Scottie's current 3-year run (+2.8 vs +2.7), and only Vijay Singh from '03 to '05 had a higher PGA Tour win percentage (20% vs 19%).

Amazingly, Scottie's 2022 is relatively weak compared to the numbers he is posting right now. If he can continue to play at, or near, his 2024 level he'll be the first player to start crossing the divide to Tigerland.

Tough Tracks

We’ve broken down course difficulty (measured in skill-adjusted strokes to par) into 5 components: the length of the course, and the difficulty of shots hit from each of the 4 SG categories. Conveniently, each of these components is measured in strokes. For course length, we use our baseline functions–which tell us the expected strokes to hole out from any distance/lie–to get the expected score on each hole based on its distance, add them up, and subtract par. For the SG categories, we measure the difficulty of each shot hit using strokes-gained relative to the baseline functions, and then sum these up by player and category. A final important point is that the baseline functions vary by season, to account for the changing skill (and driving distance) of the average player.

An example will help illustrate this breakdown: at the most recent Masters, Augusta National played to an average of 2.6 strokes over par (after adjusting for skill). Based on its hole yardages, we’d expect an average score of 71.94 (or 0.06 strokes under par). Using the baseline functions, players gained 0.48 strokes on tee shots per round, lost 1.6 strokes on approach, lost 0.74 around the green, and lost 0.82 putting. (Gaining strokes here means players are hitting shots closer to the pin and in better lies than what we’d expect from the same distance at an average PGA Tour course.) These 5 numbers (-0.06, -0.48, 1.6, 0.74, 0.82) add up to the overall scoring average of +2.6, and tell us that Augusta played difficult because of how hard shots were from approach on in.

Here’s the breakdown for all major courses since 2015 that we have shot-level data for, as well as some select PGA Tour courses:

Some observations:

1. It’s easy to forget how important par is to a course’s perceived difficulty. It’s pretty rare for a par-70 to have an under-par expected score based on its hole distances, and it’s also rare for a par-72 to have an over-par expectation.

2. Augusta National is in a league of its own in terms of consistently challenging players after the tee shot (approach, around the green, putting). Muirfield Village and Bay Hill are the two other regularly-played courses that play tough without length being a significant contributor.

3. Other than a defenseless St. Andrews in 2022, Valhalla was the easiest major championship course in this database (despite being long). The approach shots at Valhalla, Bellerive, and Baltusrol were by far the easiest of the major courses.

4. LACC, host of last year’s U.S. Open, played easier off-the-tee and on approach shots than an average PGA Tour course. There is a lot of nuance to evaluating major championship setups, but I’m not sure it's ever acceptable for players to have an easier time advancing their ball from tee to green in a U.S. Open than at a regular tour stop.

Unfortunately, we don’t have shot-level data from the U.S. Open at Pinehurst in 2014, but we can still calculate the length component of course difficulty. Pinehurst’s scorecard yardage this week is 7550 with a par of 70; based on the hole yardages we’d expect a scoring average of 72.1 (+2.1). In 2014, the course played to a similar length with a scoring average of +3.1. Given how much discussion there has been around the difficulty of the approaches and green complexes at Pinehurst, its length can go unnoticed. Of course, this length might be mitigated by a firm golf course, which would show up as OTT playing “easy” due to tee shots traveling further. It will be interesting to check back in on these numbers in next week’s newsletter.

Rankings Update

Top 10 (see all)
Player	DG		OWGR
Scottie Scheffler	1	—	1	—
Xander Schauffele	2	—	2	—
Rory McIlroy	3	—	3	—
Collin Morikawa	4	—	7	1
Ludvig Aberg	5	—	6	—
Viktor Hovland	6	1	5	—
Jon Rahm	7	1	8	1
Russell Henley	8	—	17	1
Tommy Fleetwood	9	2	13	1
Hideki Matsuyama	10	6	14	1
Notables
Bryson DeChambeau	11	1	38	2
Joaquin Niemann	12	3	98	3
Patrick Cantlay	15	3	9	—
Louis Oosthuizen	35	1	135	3
Talor Gooch	39	—	—	—
Patrick Reed	43	10	101	1
Maverick McNealy	47	2	86	1
Carlos Ortiz	51	17	237	5
Keith Mitchell	55	—	82	1
Sebastian Soderberg	59	11	87	11
Luke Clanton (a)	141	3	—	—
Gordon Sargent (a)	157	1	—	—
Ryan Gerard	244	125	188	122

There are five players in the top 50 of our rankings who will not be teeing it up at Pinehurst this week: Niemann (12), Oosthuizen (35), Gooch* (39), Reed (43), and—the only PGA Tour player on this list—Mav McNealy (47). McNealy seems to be the biggest loser from the recent changes to the PGA Tour structure so far. He has averaged +1.1 strokes-gained this season (30th-best on tour) but has only played in one signature event (the AT&T Pebble Beach, on a sponsors invite). As for the other 4 guys... they won't be getting much sympathy from us.

Xander Schauffele heads to Pinehurst as the clear-cut world No. 2 and the most recent major champion. He's been an assassin on USGA setups, gaining 3.1 strokes per round in his 7 starts—half a stroke better than anyone else with at least 10 rounds played (Koepka at +2.6 is second best):

After a second-round 76 last week, Patrick Cantlay's 50-round strokes-gained moving average dipped to +1.3, his worst 50-round stretch since the 2017 TOUR Championship. This run of poor play has been driven by a decrease in performance throughout the bag: worse putting, worse approach play, shorter drives, and less accuracy. Xander and Cantlay's careers have always been eerily similar, but right now they couldn't be further apart.