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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)

FedExCup Fever

As has been the case since the start of the FedExCup era, this week's Wyndham Championship will mark the end of the PGA Tour regular season. But unlike in previous years—where the top 125 advanced to the postseason—only the top 70 on the FedExCup (FEC) points list will qualify for the 2023 playoffs.

This change, combined with the fact that FEC points are awarded disproportionately towards high finishes (500 points for 1st, 110 for 5th, 75 for 10th, 45 for 20th, etc.), means that some big names—who haven't played that poorly—find themselves in need of a big week just to keep their seasons alive.

Here are a few notable players currently outside the top 70, along with some basic stats on their 2023 seasons:

76. Shane Lowry: +60.2 cumulative strokes-gained (39th best), 9 top-25s, best finish: T5
79. Justin Thomas: +39.8 (60th), 9, solo-4th
81. Adam Scott: +53.8 (48th), 5, T5
97. Gary Woodland: +50.9 (58th), 6, T9

Hideki Matsuyama, while safely inside the top 70, is only ranked 56th—outside the top-50 cutoff to get guaranteed starts in the 2024 designated events. Like the players listed above, Matsuyama has played much better than his FEC rank indicates, he's just missing that elusive high finish. Here's what Hideki's season has looked like: +86.8 strokes-gained (21st), 10 top-25s, best finish: solo-5th at The Players.

The smaller field size for the FEC playoffs, and the introduction of an even stricter cutoff for designated event qualification, has highlighted the importance of capitalizing on good weeks and turning them into great ones—Exhibit A: Straka, Sepp (15th in FEC, 56th in cumulative SG).

*You can see the full FEC standings and strokes-gained rankings here.


Hodges Goes Ham

Lee Hodges did his best Brian Harman impression last week at the 3M Open, winning by 7 strokes (aided by a JT Poston triple on the final hole). Using the 3 entertainment-value metrics we introduced in last week’s newsletter, the 3M ranked as the 2nd least-entertaining tournament since 2019, behind only Nate Lashley’s blowout at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage. The full entertainment scorecard for the 3M Open looked like this: 9th percentile in Excitement, 1st percentile in Volatility, and 16th percentile in Star Power.

You can read about the details behind these new metrics in our latest blog post.


Rankings Update

Top 10 (see all)
Player DG OWGR
Scottie Scheffler 1 1
Rory McIlroy 2 2
Jon Rahm 3 3
Xander Schauffele 4 6
Patrick Cantlay 5 4
Tyrrell Hatton 6 14 1
Viktor Hovland 7 5
Cameron Smith 8 8
Rickie Fowler 9 25 1
Collin Morikawa 10 23
Notables
Tony Finau 16 4 17 2
Adam Scott 31 39
Shane Lowry 35 1 30 1
J.T. Poston 37 8 42 9
Lee Hodges 60 41 54 56
Gary Woodland 69 22 72
Justin Thomas 71 8 26 2
Adrien DdC 86 4 229 21
Patrick Fishburn 176 40 261 118
Trace Crowe 447


Player Feature


Perplexing Letzig

Here are the players with the most cumulative strokes-gained over or under baseline—our model’s prediction—in the last five weeks.

"ELITE" PLAYERS
Rising
Rory McIlroy: +7.8 SG in 2 events; Tommy Fleetwood: +7.0 SG in 2 events;

Falling
Justin Thomas: -21.8 SG in 4 events; Russell Henley: -9.7 SG in 2 events;

"SUB-ELITE" PLAYERS
Rising
Brian Harman: +22.7 SG in 3 events; J.T. Poston: +19.9 SG in 4 events;

Falling
Charles Howell III: -22.7 SG in 2 events; Austin Eckroat: -14.6 SG in 3 events;

"AVERAGE" PLAYERS
Rising
Lucas Glover: +26.9 SG in 4 events; Garrick Higgo: +20.9 SG in 4 events;

Falling
Scott Piercy: -23.3 SG in 4 events; Augusto Nunez: -22.2 SG in 5 events;

"BELOW AVERAGE" PLAYERS
Rising
Jackson Suber: +28.0 SG in 4 events; Parker Coody: +19.7 SG in 4 events;

Falling
Sean O'Hair: -19.4 SG in 5 events; Patrick Flavin: -18.0 SG in 4 events;


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Past Issues
61. Prez Cup Picks (2024-08-29)
60. Major Wrap-Up (2024-07-24)
59. Links Season (2024-07-17)
58. Captain Keegan (2024-07-10)
57. Bryson 4.0 (2024-06-19)
56. Newsletter No. 56 (2024-06-12)
55. Valhalla Delivers? (2024-05-22)
54. Major Expectations (2024-05-15)
53. Major Moves (2024-04-17)
52. Masters Tidbits (2024-04-10)
51. On Site at The Players (2024-03-21)
50. Still Top Scheff (2024-03-13)
48. Taylor Triumphs (2024-02-15)
47. DG PIP Rankings (2024-02-07)
46. California Kids (2024-01-23)
45. Yuan Goes Yard (2024-01-17)
44. Brain Drain (2024-01-03)
43. LIV Fever (2023-12-06)
42. Nothing Major (2023-11-15)
41. Driving Machine (2023-11-08)
40. How's Traffic? (2023-10-18)
39. Lucky Luke (2023-10-11)
38. Postmortem (2023-10-04)
37. Ryder Cup (2023-09-27)
36. Letzig Returns (2023-09-20)
35. That's a Wrap (2023-08-29)
34. Pick 6 (2023-08-23)
33. Tale of Two Glovers (2023-08-16)
32. Forecasting the FedEx (2023-08-09)
31. Postseason (2023-08-01)
30. Major Letdown (2023-07-25)
29. Underdogs (2023-07-19)
28. Up and Down (2023-07-11)
27. Validation for Rickie (2023-07-05)
26. The Ams Strike Back (2023-06-27)
25. Wyndham Rewarded (2023-06-20)
24. The Show Rolls On (2023-06-13)
23. Scottie's Scaries (2023-06-08)
22. Grillo, Mi Amigo (2023-05-30)
21. Major Koepka (2023-05-23)
20. Glory's Second Shot (2023-05-16)
19. We Meet Again.. (2023-05-09)
18. Big Tone (2023-05-01)
17. Health Check (2023-04-24)
16. Live From Harbour Town (2023-04-17)
15. Phil Thrills (2023-04-11)
14. Down Magnolia Lane We Go (2023-04-03)
13. Peaking for Augusta (2023-03-27)
12. Fall of The DeChambino (2023-03-21)
11. Top Scheff (2023-03-13)
10. Fore Right! (2023-03-06)
9. CH3.. Wins? (2023-02-28)
8. The Rahm Slam (2023-02-21)
7. Garbage Time (2023-02-14)
6. Little Misery (2023-02-07)
5. Rory Returns (2023-01-30)
4. Rahm Threat (2023-01-23)
3. Rising Maverick (2023-01-16)
2. Morikawa's Meltdown (2023-01-09)
1. Introducing Letzig (2023-01-02)