The FedExCup (FEC) playoffs kick off this week which, among other things, means 3 straight weeks without a cutline for us to predict. Fortunately, predicting who will advance to the next rounds of the playoffs, and who will ultimately win the FEC, provides a partial substitute.

This week’s field of 70 gets cut down to 50 at week’s end, and this cutoff has the added significance of guaranteeing starts in next year’s designated events. According to our simulations, anyone currently ranked 39th or higher is guaranteed to advance to next week’s BMW Championship. On average (in the simulations), 3 players moved inside the top 50 who are currently ranked outside of it. Two notable players near the T50 bubble are Cameron Young (48th in FEC, 77% to advance) and Hideki Matsuyama (57th, 32%).

Thirty players will advance to the Tour Championship two weeks from now, and currently only those ranked in the top 13 of the FEC rankings are guaranteed a spot (Tom Kim at 14th is 99.8% to make it). In our simulations, the average number of players that moved into the top 30 who are currently outside of it was 4.5.

Our most likely FedExCup winner is Scottie Scheffler at 37.6%. The reason for the gap between Scheffler and the next highest probability—Rahm at 18.8%—is simply that our model views Scheffler as the best player in the world by a wide margin.

Given that anyone that makes the Tour Championship has a chance of winning the FEC, it’s logical to think that this format promotes unlikely outcomes. However, that’s not the case this year: the probability that the winner of the FEC is one of Scheffler, Rahm, or McIlroy is 71%. The probability that the winner comes from the current FEC top 10 is 83%, and from the current top 20 is 95%. The highest FEC win probability among players currently outside the top 30 is Spieth at 0.5%.

You can follow our live forecast of the FedExCup playoffs here over the next 3 weeks.

Not-So-Great 58

You'd be forgiven if you assumed that Bryson DeChambeau's final-round 58 to win LIV Golf Greenbrier was an incredible achievement—but it turns out it wasn't that great.

Let's start with the course. The par-70 Old White GC played almost 3 shots under par for the week, averaging 66.74 in the final round. For reference, only three courses have yielded a lower single-round scoring average on the PGA Tour since 2004. Even though DeChambeau shot 58, he only gained 8.74 strokes on the field.

Secondly, despite their starpower and limited size, LIV fields are still average in terms of their overall player skill (see Letzig #18). Bryson's +8.74 raw strokes-gained doesn't warrant a significant strength-of-field adjustment.

So where does Bryson's 58 stack up all-time? Here are the best rounds since 2004, measured by true (strength-of-field adjusted) strokes-gained:

1. Jim Furyk: 59 (2013 BMW Championship, Round 2), +12.1 Raw SG, +13.1 True SG
2. J.B. Holmes: 62 (2015 WGC Cadillac, R1), +11.4, +12.0
3. Scottie Scheffler: 59 (2020 Northern Trust, R2), +10.5, +11.2
4. Ken Duke: 65 (2016 Players, R3), +10.6, +11.2
5. Robert Karlsson: 62 (2010 BMW PGA, R3), +11.2, +11.2
6. Cameron Tringale: 61 (2022 Scottish Open, R1), +11.0, +11.0
7. Rory McIlroy: 62 (2010 Quail Hollow, R4), +10.7, +10.9
8. Tiger Woods: 61 (2013 WGC Bridgestone, R2), +10.2, +10.9
9. Bryson DeChambeau: 60 (2021 BMW Champ., R2), +9.9, +10.9
10. Jim Furyk: 58 (2016 Travelers, R2), +10.7, +10.9
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328. Bryson DeChambeau: 58 (2023 LIV Greenbrier, R3), +8.7, +8.7

Rankings Update

Collin Morikawa enters the Playoffs ranked 9th in the DG Rankings and 22nd in the OWGR. Without a win in 2023 the narrative around Collin has been that this is another "down" season, but from a strokes-gained perspective he's on track to have the best season of his career. Winning six times—including two majors—in his first few years as a professional placed lofty expectations on the young American, who seems to have become victim of his own success.

Top 10 (see all)
Player	DG		OWGR
Scottie Scheffler	1	—	1	—
Rory McIlroy	2	—	2	—
Jon Rahm	3	—	3	—
Xander Schauffele	4	—	6	—
Patrick Cantlay	5	—	4	—
Tyrrell Hatton	6	—	14	—
Viktor Hovland	7	—	5	—
Rickie Fowler	8	1	26	1
Collin Morikawa	9	1	22	1
Tommy Fleetwood	10	1	23	1
Notables
Russell Henley	13	10	29	5
Adam Scott	23	8	39	—
Bryson DeChambeau	25	16	109	2
Brooks Koepka	26	11	13	—
Byeong Hun An	35	18	57	22
Justin Thomas	54	17	25	1
Lucas Glover	78	44	53	64
Michael Kim	123	45	112	24
Taylor Montgomery	142	3	72	3
Roger Sloan	229	84	368	—
Alex Fitzpatrick	232	83	242	103

On January 30th, Taylor Montgomery had risen to 19th in our rankings and was on the shortlist of Americans looking to make their first Ryder Cup team. The 2022 Korn Ferry grad began his PGA Tour career with 8 top-15s in his first 10 starts, and didn't miss a cut. Since then a red-hot putter has cooled off and his ball-striking has fallen off a cliff—he has 0 top-15s and 8 missed cuts in his last 16 starts. Montgomery is now 142nd in our rankings, the second-worst among players to make the Playoffs (NeSmith, 148th).

Player Feature

Russell Henley

age 34 yrs, 4 months

dg rank 13th — owgr rank 29th

weeks in dg top 100 445

dg skill +1.41 strokes-gained / round¹

style accurate driver, elite iron player

career wins
PGA Tour: 4
Korn Ferry Tour: 3
Amateur: 5

player comps
2009 Tim Clark (similarity score²: 98.3)
2016 Francesco Molinari (98.1)
2016 Ryan Moore (95.0)

Letzig's Insight
Henley was one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour in each of the 2020-2022 seasons. He’s fallen off slightly in 2023, but we still currently rank him 11th in the approach category. Henley hasn’t won as much as his SG numbers would predict, but it’s not as lopsided as you might think: he has 5 expected PGA Tour wins to his actual 4. Henley is an under-the-radar personality and player, but going strictly by the numbers he should be in the conversation for a Ryder Cup pick.

1 Relative to an average PGA Tour field.

2 Similarity scores are uniformly distributed from 0 (least similar) to 100 (most similar). Similarity is based on overall skill and playing style over the previous 3 seasons and a measure of career-long performance. Comps are restricted to players of the same age.

Week That Was

Winner	Event	True SG	xWin
B. DeChambeau	LIV — Greenbrier	+4.69	0.836
L. Glover	PGA — Wyndham Champ	+4.18	0.855
A. Fitzpatrick	CHA — British Challenge	+2.12	0.002
R. Sloan	KFT — Utah Champ	+2.07	0.002
K. Nakajima	JPN — Yokohama Champ	+1.3	0.0
S. Choi	CAN — Windsor Champ	+1.03	0.0

Explainers: True SG, xWins

Alex Fitzpatrick, the younger brother of Matt Fitzpatrick, got his first professional win on the Challenge Tour last week, winning by 5 at the British Challenge. This likely locks up Fitzpatrick’s DP World Tour card for the 2024 season—an important step in his young career.