STROKES BELOW EXPECTATION
Tiger Woods has done pretty well around Muirfield Village over the years,
winning Jack’s tournament 5 times — including 3 straight from 1999-2001 — and never
failing to play the weekend. Therefore it may surprise you that Woods has
per round below his expectation
at Muirfield Village. That is, compared
to his performance level at all other courses, Woods’ has
underperformed historically at Muirfield Village.
For example, in 2007 Woods’ baseline skill level (that is, his expected performance level)
was about 3 strokes better than the average PGA Tour player at the time;
Tiger finished T15 at the 2007 Memorial, gaining 2.5 strokes per round
over the average pro — 0.5 strokes per round below expectation.
Woods has also had some forgettable moments at Muirfield Village,
including a tidy 85 in the 3rd round of the 2015 tournament.
Removing that round would bring Woods’ career performance at
Muirfield to 0.07 strokes per round above expectation
is the justification for removing this round?).