If you like to see underdogs succeed, professional golf does not disappoint.
At last week’s Wyndham Championship, there was a 35.6% chance a golfer who started the event
with a win probability of less than 1%
would go on to win. The eventual winner, J.T. Poston,
was one of those golfers, as our model assigned him a pre-tournament win probability of just 0.5%.
In fact, Poston’s win probability got as low as 0.3% after starting his week with 3 straight pars, and
was still just 2.5% at the beginning of Sunday's final round:
Is it concerning that a player who at one point had just a 0.3% win probability according to our model,
went on to win?
simply due to the fact that there are so many golfers with very
low win probabilities at some point during a given week, that we should expect some of them
to actually go on to win once in a while (hopefully,
about 0.3% of them