I.T.N. No. 1
PUBLISHED May 6, 2019
Inside The Numbers ...
is a brief numerical summary of the current happenings in the world golf, published every Monday — hopefully.
On January 14, 2018, Max Homa had averaged -2.47 true strokes-gained per round over his previous 50 rounds. This is roughly the performance level expected from the typical Mackenzie (Canadian) Tour player. Since then, Homa’s play has steadily improved up to a PGA Tour level, culminating with his victory on Sunday at the Wells Fargo Championship. Shown below is his Homa’s 50-round moving average of true strokes-gained throughout his entire career.
For winning the Volvo China Open Mikko Korhonen received 24 Official World Golf Rankings Points, vaulting him from 121st to 84th in the OWGR Rankings. For finishing T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship, Keith Mitchell received just 7 OWGR points, 17 points fewer than Korhonen. We estimate these performances by Mitchell and Korhonen to be roughly equivalent in their quality. Korhonen beat the field in China by 3.94 strokes per round, while Mitchell gained 2.34 strokes per round over the field in North Carolina. However, we estimate that the skill level of the average player in the Wells Fargo was about 1.6 strokes better per round than that of the average player in the Volvo China Open, making these performances very similar in quality.
Spaniard Jorge Campillo has been on a torrid run of late on the European Tour circuit, averaging +1.85 true strokes-gained (that is, strokes-gained relative to an average PGA Tour player) over his last 20 rounds. This is tops amongst players who call the European Tour their home, and 15th best amongst players across all tours.
With his win at the Wells Fargo Championship, Max Homa soared 85 places up to 131st in our Data Golf Rankings, which is an attempt at ranking the best golfers in the world by their current ability levels. For reference, Homa moved up 315 spots to 102nd in the Official World Golf Rankings thanks to his victory.
In the 2019 PGA Tour season, Rory McIlroy has played 27 ShotLink measured rounds. He has not lost strokes off-the-tee relative to the average PGA Tour professional in any of these rounds. He is averaging an astounding 1.5 strokes-gained per round off-the-tee (after adjusting for the quality of the fields he competes against) in 2019. For reference, to be a top 5 off-the-tee player over the course of a PGA Tour season, historically you have had to average about 0.8 strokes-gained per round. Shown below is McIlroy's 2019 SG:OTT performance in each ShotLink round he's played.