Rory McIlroy had another disappointing final round on Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude, relinquishing
the 1-shot lead he held entering the round to Brooks Koepka, ultimately settling for a tied fourth finish.
Disappointing Sundays seem like a recurring storyline for Rory in 2019; to quantify this, we've aggregated
all of Rory's 2019 data from our live predictive model. Plotted below are Rory's expected wins at each point
in time throughout a tournament.
Note that this is a completely different expected wins concept than what we've
written about recently
. This plot tells us,
for example, that in Rory's 15 PGA Tour starts so far in 2019, his pre-tournament win probabilities
add up to about 1. Similarly, through 54 holes, Rory's win probabilities added up to 1.72 (meaning we would expect him
to get 1.72 wins from his end-of-Saturday positions if he performs as our model expects). In fact,
McIlroy has won twice so far in the 2019 PGA Tour season — slightly exceeding our model's expectation.
This is surprising, but keep in mind that in McIlroy's two victories of 2019 — the PLAYERS Championship and
the RBC Canadian Open — his win probabilities through three rounds were just 27% and 30%, respectively.
Those were tournaments where McIlroy over-performed substantially on Sunday. This plot does not disprove the narrative
that Rory has underachieved on Sundays in 2019, but it is, at the very least, an interesting data point to consider.