This week major championship golf returns to Pebble Beach, site of
Tiger Woods' historic win at the 2000 U.S. Open. Tiger managed to win by a few strokes
that year — 15 to be exact.
According to our model
that performance was worth about 7.5 strokes per round better than what you would
expect from an average PGA Tour field that season.
Throughout the 2000 season, Tiger averaged a mind-boggling 4.2 adjusted strokes-gained per round.
Therefore, he only performed 3.3 strokes better than his year-long baseline
en route to that historic U.S. Open victory. To put this into perspective,
3-4 strokes per round over the course of a 4-round tournament
is the type of overperformance it takes for
an average PGA Tour professional to notch a victory.
In other words, relative to his year-2000 baseline,
Tiger’s performance at the U.S. Open wasn’t that
much of an outlier. Scary stuff.