NIGHT MODE
DAY MODE
Who benefits from wide fairways?
PUBLISHED — 2021-11-21
Analyzing the impact of hole characteristics on the performance of specific player types.
shot-level data
golf course architecture
myth-busting
How much is 10 yards worth?
PUBLISHED — 2021-09-21
Estimating the advantage of 10 yards of driving distance as a function of hole length.
shot-level data
modelling
driving distance
Thoughts related to the Historical Tournament Stats page
PUBLISHED — 2021-08-01
A varied piece that looks at the penalty for missing a fairway, how to estimate fairway width from shot data, and the correlation of skills with performance within tournaments.
shot-level data
course analysis
golf course architecture
Torrey Pines Hole Mappings READERS' CHOICE AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2021-06-15
Using heat maps to visualize the expected strokes to hole out from every location at Torrey Pines.
shot-level data
major preview
strategy
course analysis
Is Jordan Spieth Back? READERS' CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2021-04-06
Using shot-level data to understand the evolution of Spieth's career and his recent resurgence.
shot-level data
player analysis
easy read
The Favourite-Longshot Bias is not a bias READERS' CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2021-02-09
Why declining returns at longer odds should be expected in any betting market: some intuition, theory, and evidence.
betting
economics
How sharp are bookmakers? READERS' CHOICE AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2020-12-18
Analyzing matchup and 3-ball odds from the 2019 and 2020 season on the PGA and European Tours while also evaluating the Data Golf model.
betting
statistics
A data-driven history of Augusta National READERS' CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2020-11-09
Visualizing the skill profile of past Masters Champions, estimating hole-level fit, and analyzing the distance-performance relationship over time at Augusta National.
major preview
the masters
driving distance
Sleeping on the lead: how do pros perform under pressure? READERS' CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2020-09-16
Using strokes-gained and win probability to assess the role of skill, luck, and pressure in golfers' third and fourth round performances.
pressure
modelling
Which tournaments separate players based on skill? READERS' CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2020-08-04
Analyzing which tournaments separate golfers based on skill versus luck while providing a preview of the 2020 PGA Championship along the way.
major preview
modelling
course analysis
Using the true strokes-gained metric in amateur golf
PUBLISHED — 2020-05-07
Providing an intuitive explanation for true strokes-gained and a comparision of the DG rankings to the WAGR system.
true strokes-gained
statistics
non-pga tour
2020 The Players Championship preview
PUBLISHED — 2020-03-09
Previewing the 2020 Players Championship by looking at the unique features of TPC Sawgrass.
major preview
course analysis
The relationship between driving distance and performance READERS' CHOICE AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2020-01-22
Analyzing how the statistical relationship between various golfer attributes and performance have evolved on the PGA Tour from 1984-2019.
driving distance
big picture
myth-busting
Fooled by randomness? Revisiting coaching changes in golf
PUBLISHED — 2019-11-01
We discuss the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean and re-evaluate our intial analysis of coaching changes on the PGA Tour.
statistics
analyzing interventions
Where do power players succeed on the PGA Tour?
PUBLISHED — 2019-06-10
We assess the degree to which longer hitters under or over-perform at each PGA Tour course, and also look at the characteristics that define these sets of courses.
driving distance
course analysis
Does experience matter at The Masters? AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2019-04-08
We analyze data from the 1995-2018 editions of The Masters to determine whether having more experience correlates with success at Augusta National.
major preview
the masters
myth-busting
easy read
Analyzing 25 years worth of professional golfers' interviews
PUBLISHED — 2019-02-04
Using over 30,000 interview transcripts from 1997-present, we analyze which words golfers overuse the most, classify player sentiment in interviews, and determine which players the media over-interviews.
random
for fun
statistics
modelling
Data Golf predictive model: methodology READERS' CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2018-11-22
Detailed document explaining the methodology behind our predictive model.
modelling
statistics
Projecting the careers of professional golfers
PUBLISHED — 2018-11-02
We talk about adjusting scores from 1983-present, how golfers' performance evolve as they age, and our career projection system for today's professionals.
modelling
player analysis
Predicting the 2018 Ryder Cup
PUBLISHED — 2018-09-25
Explaining our predictive model for the 2018 Ryder Cup and exploring optimal team construction.
modelling
match play
True strokes-gained and earnings in professional golf
PUBLISHED — 2018-09-20
We analyze the (imperfect) relationship between performance and compensation on the PGA Tour and Web.com Tour.
economics
big picture
Analyzing coaching changes on the PGA TOUR
PUBLISHED — 2018-08-07
We analyze strokes-gained trends before and after the coaching changes of 39 players on the PGA TOUR from 2004-2017
analyzing interventions
myth-busting
How talented are golfers on the PGA TOUR development ladder? AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2018-07-06
Using a strokes-gained measure that allows for comparisons across any tournament, we summarize the distribution of talent on 4 different tours (PGA, Web.com, Mackenzie, Latinoamerica)
true strokes-gained
non-pga tour
The evolution of Tiger: a detailed strokes-gained analysis
PUBLISHED — 2018-06-10
A detailed visual breakdown of how each part of Tiger's game has evolved from the Haney days up to his most recent comeback.
shot-level data
tiger
easy read
Do certain players thrive in tough conditions?
PUBLISHED — 2018-06-08
A quick analysis identfiying the players who perform best (and worst) relative to their baseline on the PGA TOUR's toughest courses.
major preview
new stats
Does THE PLAYERS host the strongest field in golf?
PUBLISHED — 2018-05-05
Using 7 different measures of field strength, we compare fields at the 4 majors plus THE PLAYERS from 2011-2017
true strokes-gained
field strength
Which holes matter most at Augusta National? AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2018-03-31
An analysis of which holes contribute most to separation between golfers at Augusta National and how this has evolved through the years
major preview
the masters
Course history revisited: using length as an indicator of course fit
PUBLISHED — 2018-02-28
Taking another crack at course history question, we use course length to create groupings of courses and look at player-course fit
modelling
course analysis
Does a player's course history predict performance?
PUBLISHED — 2017-12-27
We take on the controversial question of the importance of player-course effects in golf (spoiler alert: it doesn't look good for CH truthers)
modelling
course analysis
myth-busting
Live prediction model: the week that was
PUBLISHED — 2017-10-19
A running blog post with interesting commentary on our live predictive model
modelling
easy read
Brief summary of our 2017 in golf betting
PUBLISHED — 2017-10-10
An overview of our year in golf betting which saw us return 170% on our fund
betting
Which is more important: putting or ball-striking?
PUBLISHED — 2017-09-29
Contrasting variance decompositions of strokes-gained over an entire year versus during a single event
easy read
statistics
The luck of the draw
PUBLISHED — 2017-08-07
An analysis of scoring differences between tee-time waves and which players had the best luck in 2016
big picture
for fun
What's wrong with Rory?
PUBLISHED — 2017-07-14
A short post serving to remind readers that golf is really random
easy read
player analysis
Benchmarking the model's betting performance through 17 weeks
PUBLISHED — 2017-06-21
Checking in our betting performance through 17 weeks
betting
statistics
Revisiting the question of pressure in golf
PUBLISHED — 2017-06-10
Another deep-dive into the data behind pressure in golf
pressure
statistics
A golf fan's reflection
PUBLISHED — 2017-04-21
Guest post by Rob Courchene reflecting on Tiger's career
random
tiger
easy read
How's the model doing so far?
PUBLISHED — 2017-04-10
Evaluating the performance of our predictive model
statistics
An intergenerational approach to ranking PGA TOUR players
PUBLISHED — 2017-04-01
An (ambitious) attempt at comparing golfers across different generations
big picture
statistics
Predicting the WGC Match Play
PUBLISHED — 2017-03-20
A description of how we adapt our predictive model to a match play format
match play
modelling
Differences in field quality on the US and European tours
PUBLISHED — 2017-02-17
Quick analysis into differences in average field quality on the European and US tours
big picture
non-pga tour
field strength
A predictive model of tournament outcomes on the PGA TOUR READERS' CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2017-02-14
Detailed description of our predictive model
modelling
Penalty strokes on the PGA TOUR
PUBLISHED — 2017-01-14
Descriptive statistics on the occurence of penalty strokes on the PGA TOUR: by player and course
shot-level data
course analysis
The hot-hand fallacy: application to golf
PUBLISHED — 2017-01-10
Deep-dive into a subtle statistical bias in sequences of data and the existence of the hot-hand in golf
random
statistics
Is golf's next generation as good as we say they are? AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2017-01-08
Analyzing how the interaction of age and performance have evolved on the PGA TOUR since 1983
big picture
Tiger's performance following long layoffs
PUBLISHED — 2016-11-28
An analysis of Tiger's performances following extended time away from competition
tiger
easy read
How hard is it to follow up a great round with a good one? AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2016-10-09
A look into the age-old golf myth that claims it is more difficult to play well following a great round
myth-busting
Quantifying the Tiger Effect
PUBLISHED — 2016-09-23
Analyzing golfers' relative performance alongside Tiger Woods
tiger
easy read
Does success predict more success for Ryder Cup partners?
PUBLISHED — 2016-09-01
A brief analysis on how Ryder Cup partners perform when they play two sessions in a row
match play
easy read
How much deeper has golf become in the last 25 years?
PUBLISHED — 2016-08-13
Looking at the changing depth of PGA TOUR fields over the last the three decades
big picture
field strength
easy read
Distance-adjusted driving accuracy
PUBLISHED — 2016-08-07
Adjusting driving accuracy statistics to take account of differences in driving distance
shot-level data
new stats
How informative is a year's worth of strokes-gained data? AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2016-08-03
Applying basic inferential statistics to the different categories of strokes-gained
statistics
Strokes-gained when in contention
PUBLISHED — 2016-07-27
Creating a simple statistic that summarizes how a player performs under pressure
pressure
new stats
Dropping the anchor
PUBLISHED — 2016-07-21
Analyzing the impact of the anchoring ban on 4 prominent users of long putters
player analysis
easy read
analyzing interventions
Tiger destroyed his playing partners
PUBLISHED — 2016-07-20
Visualizing all of Tiger's, and his playing partners', final group performances
tiger
easy read
player analysis
First tee Jitters
PUBLISHED — 2016-07-16
Do golfers' hit their opening tee shots worse than other tee shots?
shot-level data
easy read
statistics
Pressure in golf - can we quantify it?
PUBLISHED — 2016-07-14
An attempt at quantifying the difference in performance when a golfer is in contention
pressure
easy read
Tiger vs. Jordan vs. Rory - who's best?
PUBLISHED — 2016-07-14
Breaking down the stats on tee shots, approachs, and putting for these 3 great players
tiger
player analysis
easy read
Match play data exploration exercise
PUBLISHED — 2016-07-06
Collection and analysis of WGC match play data
match play
modelling
Simple linear regression - how to interpret estimates
PUBLISHED — 2016-06-29
A deep dive into the many interpretations of regression coefficients
statistics
Random forests with python
PUBLISHED — 2016-06-29
Predicting Titanic survivors as an intro to random forests
modelling
#HangItUpMike AUTHOR'S CHOICE
PUBLISHED — 2016-06-29
A quick analysis to determine whether Mike Weir should quit golf
for fun
easy read
The blog
PUBLISHED — 2016-06-22
Our humble beginning
random
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