Shot-level course fit at Augusta

PUBLISHED — 2024-04-09

Using shot-level data and skill to identify the best fits for Augusta National

shot-level data

major preview

course analysis

the masters

What makes a golf tournament entertaining?

PUBLISHED — 2023-07-28

Proposing 3 simple metrics to quantify a golf tournament's entertainment value.

random

big picture

for fun

How sharp are bookmakers? Part II

PUBLISHED — 2023-02-03

Analyzing bookmakers' odds and Data Golf's odds using matchups from 2021-2022.

betting

statistics

economics

What makes Justin Thomas a great iron player?

PUBLISHED — 2022-11-25

Using strokes-gained, proximity, and GIR to analyze Justin Thomas' approach game.

shot-level data

player analysis

new stats

easy read

Who plays well at The Open?

PUBLISHED — 2022-07-12

Using country-specific performance trends by golfer nationality to improve our Open Championship predictions.

major preview

course analysis

modelling

Where to miss at TPC Sawgrass AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2022-03-08

Previewing the 2022 PLAYERS Championship by analyzing the penalty for missing left or right off the tee at TPC Sawgrass.

shot-level data

major preview

strategy

easy read

course analysis

Who benefits from wide fairways? AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2021-11-21

Analyzing the impact of hole characteristics on the performance of specific player types.

shot-level data

golf course architecture

myth-busting

How much is 10 yards worth?

PUBLISHED — 2021-09-21

Estimating the advantage of 10 yards of driving distance as a function of hole length.

shot-level data

modelling

driving distance

Thoughts related to the Historical Tournament Stats page

PUBLISHED — 2021-08-01

A varied piece that looks at the penalty for missing a fairway, how to estimate fairway width from shot data, and the correlation of skills with performance within tournaments.

shot-level data

course analysis

golf course architecture

Torrey Pines Hole Mappings READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2021-06-15

Using heat maps to visualize the expected strokes to hole out from every location at Torrey Pines.

shot-level data

major preview

strategy

course analysis

Is Jordan Spieth Back?

PUBLISHED — 2021-04-06

Using shot-level data to understand the evolution of Spieth's career and his recent resurgence.

shot-level data

player analysis

easy read

The Favourite-Longshot Bias is not a bias READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2021-02-09

Why declining returns at longer odds should be expected in any betting market: some intuition, theory, and evidence.

betting

economics

How sharp are bookmakers? READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2020-12-18

Analyzing matchup and 3-ball odds from the 2019 and 2020 season on the PGA and European Tours while also evaluating the Data Golf model.

betting

statistics

A data-driven history of Augusta National READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2020-11-09

Visualizing the skill profile of past Masters Champions, estimating hole-level fit, and analyzing the distance-performance relationship over time at Augusta National.

major preview

the masters

driving distance

Sleeping on the lead: how do pros perform under pressure? READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2020-09-16

Using strokes-gained and win probability to assess the role of skill, luck, and pressure in golfers' third and fourth round performances.

pressure

modelling

Which tournaments separate players based on skill? READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2020-08-04

Analyzing which tournaments separate golfers based on skill versus luck while providing a preview of the 2020 PGA Championship along the way.

major preview

modelling

course analysis

Using the true strokes-gained metric in amateur golf

PUBLISHED — 2020-05-07

Providing an intuitive explanation for true strokes-gained and a comparision of the DG rankings to the WAGR system.

true strokes-gained

statistics

non-pga tour

2020 The Players Championship preview

PUBLISHED — 2020-03-09

Previewing the 2020 Players Championship by looking at the unique features of TPC Sawgrass.

major preview

course analysis

The relationship between driving distance and performance READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2020-01-22

Analyzing how the statistical relationship between various golfer attributes and performance have evolved on the PGA Tour from 1984-2019.

driving distance

big picture

myth-busting

Fooled by randomness? Revisiting coaching changes in golf

PUBLISHED — 2019-11-01

We discuss the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean and re-evaluate our intial analysis of coaching changes on the PGA Tour.

statistics

analyzing interventions

Where do power players succeed on the PGA Tour?

PUBLISHED — 2019-06-10

We assess the degree to which longer hitters under or over-perform at each PGA Tour course, and also look at the characteristics that define these sets of courses.

driving distance

course analysis

Does experience matter at The Masters? READERS' CHOICE AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2019-04-08

We analyze data from the 1995-2018 editions of The Masters to determine whether having more experience correlates with success at Augusta National.

major preview

the masters

myth-busting

easy read

Analyzing 25 years worth of professional golfers' interviews

PUBLISHED — 2019-02-04

Using over 30,000 interview transcripts from 1997-present, we analyze which words golfers overuse the most, classify player sentiment in interviews, and determine which players the media over-interviews.

random

for fun

statistics

modelling

Data Golf predictive model: methodology READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2018-11-22

Detailed document explaining the methodology behind our predictive model.

modelling

statistics

Projecting the careers of professional golfers

PUBLISHED — 2018-11-02

We talk about adjusting scores from 1983-present, how golfers' performance evolve as they age, and our career projection system for today's professionals.

modelling

player analysis

Predicting the 2018 Ryder Cup

PUBLISHED — 2018-09-25

Explaining our predictive model for the 2018 Ryder Cup and exploring optimal team construction.

modelling

match play

True strokes-gained and earnings in professional golf

PUBLISHED — 2018-09-20

We analyze the (imperfect) relationship between performance and compensation on the PGA Tour and Web.com Tour.

economics

big picture

Analyzing coaching changes on the PGA TOUR AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2018-08-07

We analyze strokes-gained trends before and after the coaching changes of 39 players on the PGA TOUR from 2004-2017

analyzing interventions

myth-busting

How talented are golfers on the PGA TOUR development ladder? AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2018-07-06

Using a strokes-gained measure that allows for comparisons across any tournament, we summarize the distribution of talent on 4 different tours (PGA, Web.com, Mackenzie, Latinoamerica)

true strokes-gained

non-pga tour

The evolution of Tiger: a detailed strokes-gained analysis

PUBLISHED — 2018-06-10

A detailed visual breakdown of how each part of Tiger's game has evolved from the Haney days up to his most recent comeback.

shot-level data

tiger

easy read

Do certain players thrive in tough conditions?

PUBLISHED — 2018-06-08

A quick analysis identfiying the players who perform best (and worst) relative to their baseline on the PGA TOUR's toughest courses.

major preview

new stats

Does THE PLAYERS host the strongest field in golf?

PUBLISHED — 2018-05-05

Using 7 different measures of field strength, we compare fields at the 4 majors plus THE PLAYERS from 2011-2017

true strokes-gained

field strength

Which holes matter most at Augusta National? AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2018-03-31

An analysis of which holes contribute most to separation between golfers at Augusta National and how this has evolved through the years

major preview

the masters

Course history revisited: using length as an indicator of course fit

PUBLISHED — 2018-02-28

Taking another crack at course history question, we use course length to create groupings of courses and look at player-course fit

modelling

course analysis

Does a player's course history predict performance?

PUBLISHED — 2017-12-27

We take on the controversial question of the importance of player-course effects in golf (spoiler alert: it doesn't look good for CH truthers)

modelling

course analysis

myth-busting

Live prediction model: the week that was

PUBLISHED — 2017-10-19

A running blog post with interesting commentary on our live predictive model

modelling

easy read

Brief summary of our 2017 in golf betting

PUBLISHED — 2017-10-10

An overview of our year in golf betting which saw us return 170% on our fund

betting

Which is more important: putting or ball-striking?

PUBLISHED — 2017-09-29

Contrasting variance decompositions of strokes-gained over an entire year versus during a single event

easy read

statistics

The luck of the draw AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2017-08-07

An analysis of scoring differences between tee-time waves and which players had the best luck in 2016

big picture

for fun

What's wrong with Rory?

PUBLISHED — 2017-07-14

A short post serving to remind readers that golf is really random

easy read

player analysis

Benchmarking the model's betting performance through 17 weeks

PUBLISHED — 2017-06-21

Checking in our betting performance through 17 weeks

betting

statistics

Revisiting the question of pressure in golf

PUBLISHED — 2017-06-10

Another deep-dive into the data behind pressure in golf

pressure

statistics

A golf fan's reflection

PUBLISHED — 2017-04-21

Guest post by Rob Courchene reflecting on Tiger's career

random

tiger

easy read

How's the model doing so far?

PUBLISHED — 2017-04-10

Evaluating the performance of our predictive model

statistics

An intergenerational approach to ranking PGA TOUR players

PUBLISHED — 2017-04-01

An (ambitious) attempt at comparing golfers across different generations

big picture

statistics

Predicting the WGC Match Play

PUBLISHED — 2017-03-20

A description of how we adapt our predictive model to a match play format

match play

modelling

Differences in field quality on the US and European tours

PUBLISHED — 2017-02-17

Quick analysis into differences in average field quality on the European and US tours

big picture

non-pga tour

field strength

A predictive model of tournament outcomes on the PGA TOUR READERS' CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2017-02-14

Detailed description of our predictive model

modelling

Penalty strokes on the PGA TOUR

PUBLISHED — 2017-01-14

Descriptive statistics on the occurence of penalty strokes on the PGA TOUR: by player and course

shot-level data

course analysis

The hot-hand fallacy: application to golf

PUBLISHED — 2017-01-10

Deep-dive into a subtle statistical bias in sequences of data and the existence of the hot-hand in golf

random

statistics

Is golf's next generation as good as we say they are? AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2017-01-08

Analyzing how the interaction of age and performance have evolved on the PGA TOUR since 1983

big picture

Tiger's performance following long layoffs

PUBLISHED — 2016-11-28

An analysis of Tiger's performances following extended time away from competition

tiger

easy read

How hard is it to follow up a great round with a good one? AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2016-10-09

A look into the age-old golf myth that claims it is more difficult to play well following a great round

myth-busting

Quantifying the Tiger Effect

PUBLISHED — 2016-09-23

Analyzing golfers' relative performance alongside Tiger Woods

tiger

easy read

Does success predict more success for Ryder Cup partners?

PUBLISHED — 2016-09-01

A brief analysis on how Ryder Cup partners perform when they play two sessions in a row

match play

easy read

How much deeper has golf become in the last 25 years?

PUBLISHED — 2016-08-13

Looking at the changing depth of PGA TOUR fields over the last the three decades

big picture

field strength

easy read

Distance-adjusted driving accuracy

PUBLISHED — 2016-08-07

Adjusting driving accuracy statistics to take account of differences in driving distance

shot-level data

new stats

How informative is a year's worth of strokes-gained data?

PUBLISHED — 2016-08-03

Applying basic inferential statistics to the different categories of strokes-gained

statistics

Strokes-gained when in contention

PUBLISHED — 2016-07-27

Creating a simple statistic that summarizes how a player performs under pressure

pressure

new stats

Dropping the anchor

PUBLISHED — 2016-07-21

Analyzing the impact of the anchoring ban on 4 prominent users of long putters

player analysis

easy read

analyzing interventions

Tiger destroyed his playing partners

PUBLISHED — 2016-07-20

Visualizing all of Tiger's, and his playing partners', final group performances

tiger

easy read

player analysis

First tee Jitters

PUBLISHED — 2016-07-16

Do golfers' hit their opening tee shots worse than other tee shots?

shot-level data

easy read

statistics

Pressure in golf - can we quantify it?

PUBLISHED — 2016-07-14

An attempt at quantifying the difference in performance when a golfer is in contention

pressure

easy read

Tiger vs. Jordan vs. Rory - who's best?

PUBLISHED — 2016-07-14

Breaking down the stats on tee shots, approachs, and putting for these 3 great players

tiger

player analysis

easy read

Match play data exploration exercise

PUBLISHED — 2016-07-06

Collection and analysis of WGC match play data

match play

modelling

Simple linear regression - how to interpret estimates

PUBLISHED — 2016-06-29

A deep dive into the many interpretations of regression coefficients

statistics

Random forests with python

PUBLISHED — 2016-06-29

Predicting Titanic survivors as an intro to random forests

modelling

#HangItUpMike AUTHOR'S CHOICE

PUBLISHED — 2016-06-29

A quick analysis to determine whether Mike Weir should quit golf

for fun

easy read

The blog

PUBLISHED — 2016-06-22

Our humble beginning

random